A war in the Gulf may look far away from Brunei.
But when oil prices rise, LNG demand strengthens, shipping routes tighten, and food-import costs begin to move, distance becomes an illusion.
Reuters may be right that Brunei is not necessarily a loser when global energy prices climb. But that is only half the story.
The other half may be sitting quietly in our grocery baskets, restaurant kitchens, shipping bills, construction costs and household budgets.
If Brunei earns more from exporting energy but pays more to import food and essentials, are we really winning — or are we simply being reminded of how exposed we still are?
A war dividend is not the same as national resilience.
And perhaps the most uncomfortable question is this:
Should a country have to wait for conflict elsewhere to feel economically reassured?
Read the next Geopolitik KopiTalk.
The world, read from where we stand.
#Geopolitik #GeopolitikBN #KopiTalkMHO #BruneiPerspective #FoodForThought
When global conflict lifts export earnings but raises the cost of living at home
Geopolitik KopiTalk
A KopiTalk Column by Malai Hassan Othman
The world, read from where we stand.
It is not often that Brunei appears in a Reuters global commodities column as one of the countries that may benefit from a war.
So when the headline appeared — “Not everybody is a loser from the Iran war. Just ask Brunei” — it was difficult to scroll past.
On the surface, it sounded like good news. Higher oil prices. Stronger LNG demand. More refined-product exports. A small energy-producing nation quietly gaining while larger economies struggled with higher fuel costs and disrupted supply chains.
But the longer one sits with it, the more uncomfortable the question becomes.
What does it say about us if war elsewhere makes our economy look better?
And more importantly, who in Brunei really benefits, and who quietly pays?
Reuters’ argument is straightforward. The Iran war and what it described as the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz have pushed up crude oil, natural gas and refined fuel prices.
Countries that export energy, especially those outside the disruption zone, may enjoy higher earnings. Brunei, Reuters noted, is one of them — through crude oil, refined products and LNG.
Citing commodity analysts Kpler, Reuters reported that Brunei’s crude oil exports reached 2.74 million barrels in April, up 51 percent from April 2025. It also estimated that Brunei’s refined-product shipments could reach 4.16 million barrels in May, the highest since July last year.
For a country still deeply tied to hydrocarbon revenues, this is not a surprising observation.
But it is only half the story.
The other half sits not at the export terminal, but in the supermarket, the restaurant kitchen, the construction site, the small kedai runcit and the household budget.
Because Brunei does not only export into the world.
Brunei also imports from the world.
A rise in global energy prices may improve government revenue and the financial performance of certain industries. But the same global shock can also raise the price of imported food, fertiliser, shipping, machinery and consumer goods.
Brunei may gain at the top of the export ledger while pressure builds quietly at the bottom of the household budget.
That is not a simple win.
That is a contradiction.
For years, Bruneians have heard the language of diversification. We speak of moving beyond oil and gas, strengthening food security, building a dynamic private sector and preparing for Wawasan 2035.
Some progress has been made, especially in downstream oil and gas.
But the Reuters article should give us pause.
Brunei’s downstream industry may be classified separately from traditional extraction, but it remains closely linked to hydrocarbon feedstock, petrochemical demand and global fuel prices.
When conflict raises prices, the sector may benefit — but that benefit is still tied to the same energy cycle Brunei has long depended on.
The question is not whether downstream development matters.
It does.
The question is whether Brunei has truly diversified away from vulnerability, or merely moved further along the same vulnerable chain.
A country can earn more from exporting fuel and still pay more to import food.
That is the Brunei paradox.
We are an energy exporter with a small domestic agricultural base. Whether one uses the popular shorthand that Brunei imports around 90 percent of its food, or the more cautious official estimate of around 80 percent of food items, the message is the same: our food basket is highly exposed to the outside world.
This means a conflict in the Gulf is not only an energy story.
It can become a food story.
A cost-of-living story.
A business-survival story.
If diesel becomes more expensive globally, transport costs rise. If fertiliser prices climb, food-producing countries may pass higher input costs on. If shipping routes are disrupted, import costs can follow. And when small businesses cannot absorb the increase, the cost eventually reaches ordinary people.
That is why the question “Is Brunei a winner?” is too simple.
The better question is: which Brunei?
The export side of Brunei may benefit.
The fiscal side may breathe easier.
But the consuming Brunei — the households, the pensioners, the low-income workers, the small food operators, the contractors, the parents managing school expenses — may face the other side of the same global event.
This is where geopolitics becomes personal.
A conflict thousands of kilometres away does not need to arrive at our shores with soldiers or missiles.
Sometimes it arrives through a higher grocery bill. A more expensive shipment. A smaller restaurant margin. A farmer paying more for feed.
That is the modern face of vulnerability.
It does not always look dramatic.
It looks ordinary.
It looks like prices moving a little at a time until people start asking why their money does not stretch as far as before.
Yes, higher energy prices may help our national accounts.
Yes, it is better to be an energy exporter than a fully import-dependent consumer when global fuel prices rise.
But national resilience cannot be measured only by export receipts.
True resilience must ask whether the people are protected, whether food supply is secure enough, whether local production is serious enough, and whether the private sector can survive global shocks without constantly passing pain downwards.
A war dividend is not the same as resilience.
It may provide temporary relief.
But it should not make us comfortable.
If anything, it should make us more honest.
For decades, Brunei has had the advantage of natural resources. Oil and gas gave the country stability, revenue, infrastructure, welfare and a standard of living many nations would envy.
But the same history has also produced a dangerous habit: waiting for global energy cycles to ease the pressure that long-term policy should have reduced much earlier.
When prices rise, pressure eases.
When prices fall, warnings return.
The cycle has been with us for too long.
And every time global conflict creates an energy windfall, the temptation is to see it as relief rather than warning.
Food security cannot remain a ceremonial phrase in policy documents and speeches.
Agriculture cannot remain a small sentimental sector admired during expos and official visits.
Fisheries, poultry, livestock, vegetables, aquaculture, cold-chain logistics and local food processing cannot be approached as side activities.
They are strategic buffers.
The same applies to SMEs.
When global shocks raise costs, small businesses are often the first to feel the squeeze and the last to receive relief. They absorb cost increases, keep prices reasonable, pay workers and survive delayed payments.
That is not resilience.
That is endurance.
And endurance should not be mistaken for strength.
If higher energy prices bring additional revenue, where should the benefit go?
Into food security investment?
Into supply-chain resilience?
Into supporting SMEs facing higher input costs?
Into building the local production capacity we have been promising since before Wawasan 2035 was written?
Or will it simply pass through the economy as another momentary comfort before the next downturn?
Reuters may be right that Brunei is not necessarily a loser from the Iran war.
But that is not the end of the story.
There is a moral discomfort in being named among the countries that benefit from conflict. No country should feel too settled when its good fortune is counted against someone else’s destruction.
But the more pressing discomfort is strategic.
A country should not have to wait for war in the Gulf to feel economically reassured.
If our strongest moments still depend heavily on global conflict and fuel disruptions, then the question is not what we gained.
The question is what we have failed to outgrow.
A mature country does not waste a windfall.
It converts it into resilience.
It uses temporary strength to build permanent capacity.
It treats good export news not as an excuse to relax, but as an opportunity to fix the parts of the economy still too exposed to the outside world.
So yes, Brunei may not be a loser this time.
But between what the export ledger gains and what the household budget absorbs, the full balance sheet of this moment is still being written.
And we would do well to read it carefully.




