As Brunei stands at a crossroads, the sun sets on an oil-driven past while the horizon hints at a new dawn of innovation and sustainability. But with time slipping fast through the hourglass, the question remains — will the nation act swiftly enough to shape its future before the old foundations crumble?
With global markets shifting and structural challenges mounting, the nation stands at a crucial juncture before Wawasan 2035.
By Malai Hassan Othman | KopiTalk with MHO
It all started with a brief comment online immediately after Brunei released its latest economic reports. Someone wrote, “Are we moving fast enough for what’s coming?” It was a quiet, almost shy remark, but it captured a feeling many families have as they watch global uncertainty rise while the local economy seems to be moving to its own beat. It set the stage for a broader reflection that now feels unavoidable.
The Economic Census of Enterprises (ECE) 2024 painted a picture that was both familiar and concerning. While the number of businesses went up, total revenue took a nosedive. Industry revenue dropped by nearly 25%, and the services sector barely grew. Employment grew by 11.5%, but almost half the workforce is still made up of non-locals, mainly in construction, retail, accommodation, and other labour-heavy sectors. For many, this pattern feels all too familiar: activity without resilience, growth without depth, movement without momentum.
AMRO’s 2025 assessment sharpened these worries. It recognised Brunei’s strong macroeconomic stability but pointed out the slow pace of diversification, limited productivity gains, and ongoing reliance on hydrocarbon output and government spending. The report emphasised the need for better competitiveness, improved workforce productivity, and a quicker transformation in the private sector. It didn’t dramatise the situation; it simply suggested that Brunei’s current pace might not match the speed of global changes.
The BEO2025 report by the Centre for Strategic Policy Studies (CSPS) tackled the issue with a clear structure. It highlighted an ageing labour force, a decade-long drop in total factor productivity, and the continued focus of most enterprises on low-value activities. It also noted the dependence on foreign labour, persistent youth unemployment and underemployment, and long-term fiscal pressures that could get worse as global hydrocarbon demand softens. These findings might seem technical on paper, but their implications are very real. They affect whether young people see a future at home, whether families feel secure, and whether the promises of Wawasan 2035 remain attainable.
Yet, amidst the unease, a different perspective came from within the country’s energy and industrial sector. A senior professional pointed out that Brunei is one of the few nations in the world that still has all the strategic tools needed to move beyond hydrocarbons. With monetary sovereignty, minimal external debt, and solid reserves, there’s room for strategic investment instead of just defensive cuts. In many countries, those options are long gone. But in Brunei, they’re still available.
The expert stressed that Brunei’s small population, often seen as a limitation, is actually an advantage for national realignment. Changes can happen quickly when the scale is manageable. The country’s geography and international reputation — built on safety, trust, clean governance, and stability — are valuable in halal markets, Islamic finance, digital security, and green energy supply chains. These aren’t just soft attributes; they’re competitive assets in a region where competition is heating up.
Brunei’s state asset base, built over years of hydrocarbon revenue, was pointed out as another overlooked strength. Much of the essential infrastructure and institutional capacity is already in place. This allows future national capital to be directed not just toward catching up, but toward leapfrogging — acquiring advanced technologies, building new value chains, and nurturing enterprises that can compete regionally. Here, the expert echoed the official reports: the country has the capacity, but it needs to move faster.
Public sentiment, on the other hand, is grounded in daily concerns. Rising living costs, the slow creation of quality jobs, and the pressures of an ageing population weigh heavily on families. One comment summed it up: “We just want to know that our kids will have better opportunities than we did.” It wasn’t a critique. It was a hope — softly stated but widely felt.
Together, the ECE 2024, AMRO 2025, and BEO 2025 findings outline a clear and coherent landscape. The foundation is solid. The stability is real. But the space for hesitation is shrinking. Global oil markets are facing long-term uncertainty, with analysts warning of possible downward price pressure by the end of the decade. The reports don’t predict decline; they describe a transition that will need decisiveness and speed.
That’s why the timeline is crucial.
As 2025 approaches and the nation prepares for 2026, it’s becoming increasingly difficult to ignore the sense that a turning point is near. Wawasan 2035 — once a distant goal — is now only nine years away. The window for meaningful reform is closing. The official data has laid out the challenges clearly, the public has voiced its concerns, and industry observers have pointed out the country’s untapped strengths. The coming year can't just be another year of steady caution. It has to be a year of focus, pace, and determination.
The window is still open. How wide it stays — and for how long — will depend on the choices Brunei makes in 2026 and beyond. (MHO/12/2025)








