Day Ten: The Budget Passed. The Ban Was Announced. But the Question Is Why It Took Two Deaths to Get Here.

  

KOPITALK LEGCO TRACKER  |  22nd Legislative Council Session

 

 

 

Day Ten: The Budget Passed. The Ban Was Announced.

But the Question Is Why It Took Two Deaths to Get Here.

KopiTalk with MHO  •  Thursday, 26 March 2026  •  22nd LegCo, Day Ten  |  Morning Session

 

 

Two cyclists died on a Brunei highway on 17 February 2026. They were wearing helmets. They were following the rules. The danger they faced that morning was not new. The data was there. The regulations existed. The campaign had run. So why did it take two lives — and a royal address — to produce the response that was announced in the chamber on Day Ten?

 

 

 

It was 7 o'clock on the morning of 17 February 2026 — the first day of Chinese New Year. Two cyclists were on the Muara-Tutong Highway near Tungku Beach. They were wearing professional cycling attire. They had their helmets on. They were doing what cyclists in Brunei have been doing for years on that road — riding where there was no dedicated lane for them, because no dedicated lane existed.

A car hit them. Both died on the spot. The driver had no valid licence. The vehicle's insurance and road tax had expired. He said the glare of the morning sun had affected his vision and he only realised he had struck someone when he heard the impact.

The accident went viral. It was reported nationally. It was — as the Borneo Bulletin confirmed — directly referenced in the royal address at the opening of this very LegCo session on 12 March, when relevant authorities were urged to review legislative, enforcement, and infrastructure aspects of road safety.

On Day Ten — Thursday, 26 March 2026 — the Transport Minister stood in the chamber and announced the government's response. Cycling will be banned on all major highways and high-speed roads. Dedicated cycling routes will be established in every district. The Road Traffic Act will be amended. Road Safety Action 2030 targets have been set: a 50 per cent reduction in accidents and deaths by 2030, and 80 per cent of main roads at a minimum three-star safety rating.

It is a comprehensive response. On its own terms, it is welcome.

But it sits alongside a fact that this column cannot ignore: the accidents were rising. The data was there. The regulations existed since 2006, updated as recently as 2022. A Share the Road Campaign had run more than five years ago. The concern had been raised in this very chamber before. None of it produced what two deaths, a viral story, and a royal address produced in 38 days.

That is not a coincidence. It is a pattern. And it has a name.

It is called governance inertia.

What Governance Inertia Looks Like

Governance inertia does not mean the system is broken. It does not mean the people in it are incompetent or indifferent. It means the system is designed — consciously or not — to wait rather than anticipate, to respond rather than prevent, to move when pushed rather than when warned.

In physics, an object at rest stays at rest unless an external force acts on it. In Brunei's governance experience, the external force that most reliably moves the system is a visible, public tragedy that reaches the level of national attention. When that happens — and when it is acknowledged at the highest level — the response is often swift, structured, and serious.

The cycling ban announcement on Day Ten is a good example. The response is not hasty or ill-thought-out. It covers legislation, infrastructure, enforcement, and long-term targets. The work behind it clearly existed in some form already — you do not name specific roads for cycling bans and identify per-district cycling routes in 38 days from scratch. The plans were there, or close to there.

What moved them from planning to announcement was not new information. It was a tragedy that made continued inaction politically and morally impossible.

This is what makes governance inertia particularly difficult to talk about honestly. The response — when it finally comes — is usually genuine. The intentions are real. But the question that deserves to be asked, plainly and without rancour, is this:

If the data was there, the regulations were there, and the danger was known —

what exactly was the system waiting for?

 

Brunei recorded 1,163 road accidents in 2024 — up from 1,118 in 2023 and 1,050 in 2022. That is three consecutive years of rising accidents. Fatalities reached 12 in the first half of 2025 alone, compared to seven in the same period of 2024. The trend was not hidden. It was published. The National Road Safety Council has the numbers. The ministries have the numbers. The chamber has been discussing road safety for years.

And yet the dedicated cycling lanes do not exist, yet. The highway ban was not in place on the morning of 17 February. The road where those two cyclists died is one of the roads now named for a ban — which means it was a known high-risk road before that morning, not a surprise that only emerged from the accident investigation.

That is the weight behind Day Ten's announcement. Not scepticism about whether the government will follow through — the commitment expressed on Thursday was clear. But an honest reckoning with the cost of waiting.

Two people who followed the rules, wore their helmets, and cycled on a road they were legally allowed to use are not here to see the ban their deaths helped produce.

What Day Ten Also Brought

Day Ten was not only about cycling. It was also the day the 22nd Legislative Council session reached its formal conclusion — at least for the budget. The Supply Bill 2026/2027 was passed unanimously on Third Reading. The Development Fund Resolution of BND480 million was passed unanimously. Ten days of debate, hundreds of questions, and a BND6.3 billion budget — all of it formally approved in a single morning.

The session opened with a significant Ministerial Statement from the Primary Resources and Tourism Minister — a direct response to the food security debates that have run through this session, and specifically to the rice farmer concerns that Day Nine surfaced so vividly. The statement was detailed and ambitious: a national food sector export drive targeting growth from BND734 million in 2025 to BND1.5 billion by 2035. Egg self-sufficiency already at 112 per cent. A Brunei-Singapore Agritech Food Zone is in development. A Hybrid Rice Research Centre is being negotiated with China. Three tiers of food producers being supported from home-based micro-enterprises all the way to export-ready companies.

It is a serious and well-structured response. It shows that in many areas, the system is trying to move with greater urgency and direction.

But readers who followed Day Nine will remember the three things the farmers actually asked for: more certified seed suppliers, more field visits from ministry officials, and stronger coordination at the grassroots level.

The ministerial statement addressed the export architecture.

The farmers' three requests — which cost very little and require no new law — were not visibly answered.

The big picture was drawn.

The small picture is still waiting to be coloured in.

The Civic Map-Maker — And What the System Did With the Gift

A member of the public designed a better public bus route map. It was clear, practical, and modelled on the kind of maps that work in neighbouring countries. It went viral. People responded positively because it solved, visually and simply, a problem that has frustrated bus users for years.

Dayang Chong Chin Yee raised this in the chamber on Day Ten. She was not just talking about a map. She was asking a structural question: when a citizen offers the system something genuinely useful, what is the mechanism for receiving it? How does civic contribution become civic action? She asked for a formal framework — a structured civic participation pathway — so that public ideas are acknowledged, evaluated, and, where appropriate, acted on.

The minister's response was warm. He said they would reach out to the individual who made the map. That is something.

But it is also, again, a personal response to what should be a structural one.

One minister reaching out to one map-maker is not a civic participation framework.

It is the kind of ad hoc, personality-dependent response that means the next good idea — from someone less visible or less viral — may simply disappear.

This connects directly to what Day Nine named as the session's central challenge.

Feedback is a gift.

But receiving a gift is not the same as building a system that knows how to open it.

The Airport, the Digital Payments, and the Under-16 Problem

Three other issues from the Transport and Infocommunications debate deserve mention.

The Tarus digital payment system is rolling out now — BIBD and Baiduri Bank onboarding soon, QR code phase next. A dedicated Scam Centre helpline has been established. These are concrete, near-term deliverables.

The airport question was significant. A member asked whether Brunei International Airport should be corporatised — taken out of direct government management and run as a semi-independent entity, as several regional airports have done. The minister confirmed that a new Aviation Steering Committee has been formed and is looking at exactly this question. A Low-Cost Carrier committee has also been approved. The target is 2 million passengers through the airport by 2030. These are meaningful ambitions for a country trying to diversify its economy.

The social media question for children under 16 produced the most candid admission of the day. The minister acknowledged that countries like Australia, Malaysia, and the United Kingdom have passed laws restricting social media access for minors. Brunei is studying how to do the same. But there is a fundamental problem: none of the major social media platforms are headquartered in Brunei. The legal reach of any Brunei regulation simply does not extend to companies based abroad.

It is an honest answer to a hard problem.

But it also illustrates something broader — the gap between what a small nation wants to regulate and what it has the structural power to enforce.

 

What the Public Is Really Asking 

   

• For the cycling community: the ban is coming, and the dedicated lanes are promised. But the roads named for banning are the roads cyclists have been using for years because no alternative existed. When will the alternative actually be ready — and what happens to cyclists in the meantime?
  
  

• For the rice farmer: the export strategy is ambitious and well-designed. But the three things asked for — more seed suppliers, more field visits, better grassroots coordination — are small, practical, and affordable. Are they in the plan?
  
  

• For the citizen with a good idea: the minister said he would reach out to the map-maker. That is encouraging. But what about the next good idea, from someone less visible? When will there be a system, not just a gesture?
  
  

• For parents of children under 16: the government acknowledges the danger of unregulated social media access. It acknowledges that other countries have acted. It is studying the options. At what point does studying become deciding — and what protections are in place for children while the study continues?
   

• For every road user in Brunei, accidents rose three years in a row. The data was published. The trend was visible. It took a specific, fatal, viral event to produce the comprehensive response announced on Day Ten. What would it take to make the trend itself — not the tragedy — the trigger for action?

 

 The Signal of the Day — and of the Session

 

Day Ten was the day the budget passed and the session formally concluded its main business. It is also the day that most clearly illustrates the governance pattern this series has been tracing since Day One.

 

The pattern is not malice. It is not indifference. The government of Brunei demonstrably cares about its people. The budget is large, the welfare system is real, and the ministers who spoke across ten days were, for the most part, engaged and honest. When the system finally moves, it often moves seriously.

 

But governance inertia has a cost that falls unevenly.

 

It falls hardest on the people who encounter the problem before it becomes a crisis — the cyclists who rode those highways for years before the ban, the parents who needed childcare for a four-year-old this year not next, the farmers who needed a fourth certified seed supplier before the export strategy was announced, the welfare families whose assistance has been calculated on 2015 prices for over a decade.

 

For each of them, the system's eventual response is welcome.

But it arrives after the cost has already been paid — sometimes in money, sometimes in years, sometimes in lives.

 

DMAO has been asking throughout this session: who is still responsible after the answer is given?

 

Day Ten adds a companion question that the cycling story makes unavoidable:

Who is responsible before the crisis makes the answer necessary?

 

Because the real measure of governance is not how quickly a system responds to a tragedy. It is whether the system is structured to prevent the tragedy from being the thing that finally moves it.

 

The data was there. The trend was visible. The roads were known. The campaign had run. The regulations existed.

 

Two people cycled out on a February morning in their helmets and cycling gear, on a road they were legally allowed to use, in a country that had all the information it needed to protect them.

 

The question is not whether the government will now do the right thing.

On the evidence of Day Ten, it will.

 

The harder question is whether the system can learn to do the right thing before it has no choice.

 

 

 

The 22nd Legislative Council session continues Saturday, 28 March 2026, at 9.30am.

The budget has been passed. The questions have not.

 

 

 

KopiTalk LegCo Tracker covers the 22nd Legislative Council session from a public-first perspective.

What was said, what mattered, and what the public is still waiting for.

Day Nine: Feedback Is a Gift. So, Why Is No One Opening It?

KOPITALK LEGCO TRACKER  |  22nd Legislative Council Session

 

 

 

Day Nine: Feedback Is a Gift.

So, Why Is No One Opening It?

KopiTalk with MHO  •  Wednesday, 25 March 2026  •  22nd LegCo, Day Nine  |  Morning and Afternoon Sessions

 

 

She visited the rice farmers. She sat with them. She listened. They told her exactly what is wrong — and exactly what would help fix it. She brought those words into the chamber and called them what they are: a gift. Day Nine of LegCo. The nation has a plan for almost everything. The question is whether it is listening to the people already doing the work.

 

 

 

She did not send a survey. She did not wait for a report. She went to the fields.

 

Dayang Hajah Rosmawatty binti Haji Abdul Mumin visited rice farmers across Brunei Muara, Tutong, and Belait. She sat with them and held a dialogue. She came back with their words in her hands — not as statistics, but as the practical things they told her needed fixing. Then she brought those words into the Legislative Council chamber and ended her contribution with a line that deserves to sit near the centre of this entire session:

 

Feedback is a gift.

 

Three words. But they carry the weight of nine days of debate.

 

Because this session has spent nine days and a BND6.3 billion budget discussing what the country needs. And again and again, the people who know the answer most clearly are not always the ministers in the chamber. They are the farmers in the fields, the parents managing school runs alone, the families in Temburong driving past the one EV charging station that only works if you own the right brand of car. They are already giving their feedback — in their choices, their struggles, and their workarounds. The question is whether the system is treating it like the gift it says it is.

 

Day Nine was the first sitting after Hari Raya. The Yang Di-Pertua opened with a call for semangat berkobar-kobar — a burning spirit — to finish the work ahead. The session covered two ministries in Question Time and four in the Committee Stage across morning and afternoon sittings. It was dense, detailed, and at times candid in ways that earlier days were not. And woven through all of it was a single question that kept returning in different forms:

 

who is the system actually built for?

 

What Was Raised

 

The farmers who are already doing it right — and what they need

 

Brunei imports over 90 per cent of its rice. That figure alone should concentrate minds. And it has — the national rice self-sufficiency rate has improved from 4.7 per cent in 2017 to around 8 per cent in 2024. That improvement did not come from a policy document. It came from farmers who showed up, planted, and delivered. The top 20 farmers are earning between BND200,000 and close to BND1 million a year. The model works when it is properly supported.

 

But here is the paradox Rosmawatty brought into the chamber. The rice production project under the national development plan has a planned allocation of BND1.82 million. In the last financial year, only BND36,000 of that was spent.

 

That is not a rounding error.

 

That is a food security project running at about two per cent of its intended budget.

 

And when she sat with the farmers and asked them what they needed, they did not ask for grand policy changes. They asked for three things.

 

— More certified seed suppliers — right now, there are only three in the entire country, and supply is not enough to meet the programme's targets.

 

— More field visits from ministry officials — not inspections, but genuine engagement, where someone comes and listens to what is working and what is not.

 

— Stronger field leadership, so farmers at the grassroots level have a coordinator who can help solve problems without waiting months for a response.

 

These are not impossible things to provide. They do not require a new law or a major policy redesign.

 

They require attention.

 

Now place that alongside this: the government is preparing for Visit Brunei Year 2027 with a tourism budget that has nearly doubled from BND1.9 million to BND3.9 million. There is a task force for education tourism. A visit to Singapore is planned within two weeks to discuss bringing students here. Dedicated marketing pushes into North America, Europe, and the Middle East are underway. Health tourism packages are being developed with JPMC. Islamic tourism packages are already in motion.

 

None of that is wrong. Tourism matters. Economic diversification is urgent.

 

But the contrast is difficult to ignore.

 

Big ambitions tend to attract budgets, task forces, and movement.

 

The farmer growing rice to feed the country is still waiting on three seed suppliers and a project barely moving on paper.

 

The nation says food security is a priority.

 

The budget, at least for now, suggests a different tempo.

 

 

The model works when it is properly supported. The question is why support seems to arrive faster for large, visible initiatives than for the people already growing the food.

 

The child left between noon and five o'clock

 

Awang Amran bin Haji Maidin raised something on Day Nine that every working parent in Brunei will recognise immediately.

 

Current regulations only allow registered daycare centres to accept children up to three years old. Kindergarten runs half a day. That leaves a gap — children aged three to five who are too old for registered daycare but too young for a full school day. Working parents, particularly those without family nearby to help, are filling that gap with informal arrangements.

 

Here is the irony.

 

The regulation was designed to protect children. But in practice, it is pushing families toward arrangements that may offer less protection, not more. Because a registered, supervised daycare centre — the kind with trained staff, safety standards, and government oversight — cannot legally take their child. So they find someone who can. And that someone operates outside any regulatory framework at all.

 

Amran asked for the policy to be reviewed. He suggested a new category — after-school care for children aged four to six, with clear safety standards and supervision requirements.

 

It is a practical, common-sense solution.

 

The answer, however, did not yet offer the clarity many parents would have hoped for.

 

And so, for now, the parents are still the ones solving it.

 

One charging station. One brand. One resort.

 

Brunei has approximately 2,000 PHEV and EV vehicles registered as of January 2026. There are 40 charging stations and 45 charging points across the country. The transition to electric vehicles is real, and the numbers are growing.

 

In Temburong — the district the government is actively developing as an eco-tourism destination, the district connected to the mainland by a BND1.6 billion bridge — there is one EV charging station. It is at The Abode Resort and Spa. It only works for specific vehicle brands.

 

That is not a small detail.

 

That is the gap between a national ambition and the infrastructure that makes it usable.

 

If you drive to Temburong in an EV that is not the right brand, you are effectively on your own.

 

The minister acknowledged this and said more chargers will come as usage grows. That is probably true. But usage usually grows when infrastructure exists — not only after it does.

 

The digital ambition — and what sits underneath it

 

Day Nine's Question Time was almost entirely about digital transformation.

 

Public service satisfaction is at 84.4 per cent. Online service satisfaction at 79.2 per cent. Instagram reach for religious content increased elevenfold in a single year. A locally-built Brunei game, Tikus Tales, won silver at the ASEAN Digital Awards 2025. The e-sports team won seven medals, including gold at SUKMA 2024. The GenAI handbook for education was launched in September 2025. Sixty-six religious services have been mapped for digitisation.

 

Taken at face value, it is the picture of a country moving steadily into a digital future.

 

But the same sitting also heard a member raise the fact that the digital signatures law has a section — Part 10, governing Certification Authorities — that has not yet been enforced. The e-stamping system has been running since December 2022, but business processes at the land department and court registry still require people to show up at a counter.

 

And across the Committee Stage, the pattern that has run through this session kept reappearing:

 

The system is increasingly good at launching, mapping, and measuring activity.

 

It is still working on measuring whether that activity has meaningfully changed daily life.

 

That is not a dismissal of the effort. The effort is real and visible.

 

It is a question about what the numbers are actually measuring.

 

84.4 per cent customer satisfaction in a public service survey is a meaningful figure. But it sits alongside a rice project running at two per cent of its allocation and a childcare gap that working parents are solving informally.

 

The digital infrastructure is growing.

 

The question is whether it is reaching the people who need it most.

 

What the Answers Revealed

 

Day Nine had a different quality to its answers than the pre-Raya sittings. Ministers were more relaxed. Some exchanges had genuine warmth. The Yang Di-Pertua's remark at the opening — that he hoped members would return with a burning spirit — set a tone that held through most of the day.

 

The Primary Resources and Tourism Minister was candid about the export initiative. Twenty-nine companies have registered interest in exporting to Singapore. The domestic market is limited — the minister said so plainly.

 

But the feedback from the farming dialogue raised something the answer did not fully settle: you cannot export at scale if you cannot first grow at scale. And you cannot grow at scale if your seed supply is bottlenecked at three certified suppliers.

 

The Development Minister was honest about the limits of the chamber as a venue for certain kinds of questions. He endorsed the Yang Di-Pertua's gentle redirect to members who raised very specific local infrastructure issues — flood drainage in Tutong, water supply gaps in Brunei Muara — suggesting these are often better pursued through district offices and direct ministerial channels than through a budget committee sitting.

 

That is fair.

 

But it also points to a structural reality: the people most affected by these issues often do not know those channels exist, or do not feel confident using them. The chamber remains the one place where they know their representative is being heard.

 

The Religious Affairs Minister's response to halal certification deserves attention. There are tens of thousands of pending halal certification applications. The minister acknowledged this. A member proposed a dedicated halal authority to help clear the backlog and position Brunei more competitively in a global halal market worth between USD2.3 and USD2.8 trillion.

The idea is not new.

 

But the scale of the opportunity — and the scale of the backlog — are both growing. The distance between them is not closing fast enough.

 

The Culture, Youth and Sports Minister's response to the PKBN youth programme was one of the most direct of the day. Pehin Suyoi suggested extending the programme to job-seeking graduates as a structured six-month bridge — not just patriotism and character, but targeted skills, digital literacy, industry exposure, and mentorship.

 

The minister welcomed the idea but noted the cost is BND3,500 per participant.

 

That is not a small amount.

 

But it is also considerably less than the cost of a graduate who stays unemployed for another year.

 

What the Public Is Really Asking

 

— For the rice farmer: the feedback has been given. The seeds are insufficient, the visits are too rare, and the field coordination is weak. These are solvable problems. When will they be solved?

 

— For the working parent: the childcare gap is not a new discovery. Parents have been solving it informally for years, often in ways that offer their children less protection than a registered centre would. What is the timeline for a policy review?

 

— For the EV driver in Temburong: the bridge cost BND1.6 billion. The charging infrastructure was not integrated in any meaningful way. When investment and daily usability are this far apart, what is the coordination mechanism meant to close that gap?

 

— For the halal entrepreneur: the global halal market is worth trillions. Brunei's certification is internationally respected. But the backlog is tens of thousands of applications deep. Every month that passes is a month of lost opportunity.

 

— For the young person waiting for a job: the PKBN costs BND3,500 per participant to run a programme that, by the minister's own account, produces measurable, employer-confirmed improvements in attitude, discipline, and work readiness. Why is the programme not bigger?

 

The Signal of the Day

 

Day Nine was the day the session came back from Hari Raya and found the same questions still waiting.

 

Not because nothing had been done.

 

But because the work that matters most — the slow, consistent, field-level work of listening and responding — does not pause for public holidays.

 

The paradox Rosmawatty surfaced is this:

 

The country's food security strategy depends on farmers.

 

Not on investors, not on task forces, not on marketing campaigns — but on the people who wake up and plant things.

 

And those people are already giving the system clear, specific, actionable feedback about what they need to do more of — and what they are already doing well. The top 20 are earning up to a million ringgit a year. The model is proven. The bottlenecks are known.

 

Meanwhile, a tourism budget nearly doubles. A team flies to Singapore within two weeks. New markets are being opened in Europe and North America. These things are not wrong. They are exactly what economic diversification looks like in motion.

 

But the contrast reveals something real about how urgency is often allocated.

 

Large, visible, internationally-facing initiatives tend to move quickly.

 

Small, domestic, ground-level needs — three more certified seed suppliers, a policy update for childcare, a working charger in Temburong — often wait in a queue that seems to have no visible front.

 

DMAO has been asking across this entire session: who is still responsible after the answer is given?

 

Day Nine offers a sharper version of that question.

 

Not just who is responsible —

but who is listening?

 

Not only to the questions in the chamber,

but to the answers that are already out there — in the fields, in the homes, in the car that parks at Temburong's one charging station and finds it does not work for them.

 

The feedback is being given. Every day.

 

By the farmers who grow food.

 

By the parents who patch together childcare.

 

By the drivers navigating roads and systems not yet built for how people actually live.

 

Whether it is received as a gift — that is the measure of what this session will have been worth.

 

 

 

The session continues Thursday, 26 March 2026, at 9.00am.

 

The rice is still growing.

The feedback is still waiting.

The gift is still on the table.

 

And the real test is no longer whether the country knows what needs fixing.

It is whether the system is willing to keep saying feedback is valuable — while leaving so much of it unopened.

 

 

 

KopiTalk LegCo Tracker covers the 22nd Legislative Council session from a public-first perspective.

What was said, what mattered, and what the public is still waiting for.

 

 

  PARTI PEMBANGUNAN BANGSA (NDP) BRUNEI

DARI MEJA PENASIHAT

21 Mac 2026

Perang di Sana — Tapi Tempiasnya Sampai ke Rumah Kita

Apa Erti Perang AS-Israel-Iran Kepada Setiap Warga Brunei

Gambar-gambar yang mengalir dari Iran, Israel, dan Teluk Parsi mungkin terasa jauh. Konflik di bumi orang. Peperangan antara kuasa-kuasa besar yang tidak ada kena-mengena dengan kita. Itulah sangkaan sebahagian daripada kita. Namun, sangkaan itu silap. Apa yang sedang berkecamuk di Timur Tengah hari ini akan mengetuk pintu rumah kita juga. Ia akan terserlah pada harga barang keperluan di pasar raya, pada bil elektrik, pada tambang penerbangan untuk mengunjungi sanak-saudara di perantauan — dan yang paling berat sekali, pada kewangan sebuah kerajaan yang telah sekian lama menanggung beban yang kian bertambah bagi pihak rakyatnya.

Perang AS-Israel-Iran 2026 bukan sekadar krisis serantau. Ia adalah gegaran struktur kepada ekonomi dunia — dan Brunei berdiri tepat di laluan ribut itu. Kenyataan ini diterbitkan bukan untuk menebar ketakutan, tetapi untuk menyedarkan. Sebagai warga Brunei, kita berhak mengetahui hakikat yang sedang kita hadapi — dan wajib bersedia menghadapinya.

APA YANG SEDANG BERLAKU — DAN MENGAPA IA PENTING

Pada 28 Februari 2026, Amerika Syarikat dan Israel melancarkan serangan udara mengejut ke atas Iran, mengorbankan Pemimpin Tertinggi negara itu dan mencetuskan gelombang serangan balas peluru berpandu serta dron Iran merentasi seluruh rantau. Negara-negara Teluk — Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, Arab Saudi, dan UAE — semuanya tidak terlepas dari tempias serangan itu. Menjelang Hari ke-21 konflik ini, lebih 1,400 rakyat Iran telah gugur, 18,000 orang awam cedera, dan 204 kanak-kanak maut. Tiga juta rakyat Iran terpaksa meninggalkan tempat tinggal mereka.

Iran membalas dengan menutup Selat Hormuz — laluan laut yang sempit itu, yang setiap harinya dilalui kira-kira 20 juta tong minyak, serta satu perlima daripada bekalan gas asli cecair dunia. Laluan itu kini secara hakikinya telah tersumbat. Akibatnya sedang mengalir deras merentasi ekonomi dunia, dengan kelajuan yang sepatutnya membimbangkan setiap orang daripada kita.

APA YANG TELAH DISUARAKAN DI DEWAN RAKYAT KITA

Perang ini tidak berlalu tanpa perhatian di dewan perundangan kita sendiri. Persidangan Pertama Majlis Mesyuarat Negara (MMN) Ke-22 yang bermula pada 12 Mac 2026 telah mendengar dua kenyataan yang sarat makna — dan kedua-duanya wajar mendapat perhatian seluruh rakyat.

MENTERI LUAR NEGERI II — MMN KE-22, 16 MAC 2026 Ketika berucap dalam perbahasan Rang Undang-Undang Bekalan, Menteri Luar Negeri II tidak membataskan diri kepada kesopanan diplomatik semata-mata. Beliau menamakan perang itu dengan terang. Beliau menyatakan penolakan tegas Brunei terhadap tindakan tentera ke atas Republik Islam Iran. Beliau mengesahkan bahawa serangan balas telah menular ke negara-negara jiran Iran — dan bahawa beliau sendiri telah menghubungi menteri luar negeri tujuh buah negara dalam tempoh yang singkat sesudah itu: Oman, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Arab Saudi, Jordan, dan UAE, bagi menyampaikan keprihatinan mendalam dan perasaan setiakawan Brunei. Namun satu ayat beliau — ringkas, padat — pasti telah menghentikan degupan jantung setiap ibu bapa, suami isteri, dan adik-beradik yang mempunyai orang tersayang di luar negeri: "Setakat hari ini, seramai 760 rakyat Brunei sedang berada di rantau Timur Tengah. Mereka telah dinasihatkan agar sentiasa berwaspada dan mengambil semua langkah berjaga-jaga yang perlu. Kementerian sedang memantau keadaan." Bagi keluarga 760 orang itu — pekerja di Teluk, pelajar di Jordan, warga Brunei yang menunaikan Umrah — itu bukan sekadar kenyataan dasar luar negeri. Itu adalah sesuatu yang menyentuh hati sanubari. Itulah suara sebuah kerajaan yang berkata kepada rakyatnya: kami tahu di mana orang-orang tersayang anda berada, dan kami sentiasa memerhati.

 

MENTERI KEWANGAN DAN EKONOMI II — MMN KE-22, 14 MAC 2026 Yang Berhormat Dato Seri Setia Dr Haji Mohd Amin Liew bin Abdullah, semasa membentangkan Rang Undang-Undang Bekalan BND6.3 bilion bagi Tahun Kewangan 2026/2027, berterus-terang mengenai kedudukan fiskal Brunei yang terdedah kepada kejutan luar: "Ketidakpastian ekonomi global — yang dipengaruhi oleh ketegangan geopolitik di Timur Tengah, perubahan dalam struktur perdagangan global, prospek pertumbuhan global yang sederhana serta cabaran perubahan iklim — memerlukan kerajaan mengambil langkah-langkah yang berhati-hati dan strategik sambil memastikan negara mengekalkan kestabilan makroekonomi dan ketahanan fiskal." Beliau selanjutnya mengesahkan bahawa kerajaan akan mengekalkan subsidi ke atas beras dan bahan api, mengiktiraf peranan subsidi itu dalam melindungi rakyat daripada tekanan inflasi — namun turut menegaskan bahawa gangguan rantaian bekalan global dan ketidaktentuan harga minyak antarabangsa, yang dicetuskan oleh ketegangan geopolitik, terus melanda ekonomi seluruh dunia. Defisit belanjawan yang diunjurkan bagi TK 2026/2027 ialah BND2.72 bilion — jurang antara perbelanjaan BND6.3 bilion dan hasil yang diunjurkan sebanyak BND3.53 bilion. Hasil minyak dan gas telah merosot dengan ketara, daripada BND1.93 bilion kepada BND1.499 bilion. Angka-angka ini dibentangkan sebelum perang Iran semakin mengguncang pasaran tenaga global. Perang Iran sejak itu telah menjadikan kedudukan fiskal yang sudah mencabar itu jauh lebih membimbangkan.

 

Kedua-dua kenyataan ini, jika diteliti bersama, menyampaikan satu mesej yang jelas: kerajaan sedar akan keseriusan keadaan ini. Persoalannya ialah sama ada kesedaran itu akan diterjemahkan kepada perbahasan awam yang terbuka, bertanggungjawab, dan bermakna — dan itulah sebabnya NDP menyeru agar perkara ini diletakkan secara rasmi di hadapan Majlis Mesyuarat Negara.

SERUAN UNTUK PERBAHASAN TERBUKA DI MAJLIS MESYUARAT NEGARA

Parti Pembangunan Bangsa (NDP) menyeru Majlis Mesyuarat Negara agar memperuntukkan masa yang khusus dalam persidangan semasa atau akan datang untuk mengadakan perbahasan berstruktur mengenai impak ekonomi dan fiskal perang Iran 2026 terhadap Negara Brunei Darussalam.

Ini bukan seruan untuk menabur kebimbangan. Ini adalah seruan untuk akauntabiliti dan ketelusan. Rakyat Brunei berhak mendapat jawapan yang jelas dan rasmi bagi soalan-soalan berikut:

•    Apakah penilaian kerajaan mengenai tempoh harga minyak global akan kekal tinggi — dan berapakah anggaran kos tambahan kepada belanjawan subsidi bahan api bagi setiap bulan harga minyak Brent kekal melebihi AS$100 setong?

 

•   Apakah langkah-langkah kecemasan yang tersedia bagi melindungi simpanan makanan strategik dan rantaian bekalan Brunei sekiranya Selat Hormuz terus tersumbat melebihi jangka masa yang pendek?

 

•    Berapa lama rejim subsidi semasa mampu dipertahankan dalam keadaan harga tenaga global yang tinggi sebelum rizab fiskal negara terhakis — dan apakah ambang yang akan memaksa kerajaan menilai semula dasar ini?

 

•    Apakah rancangan kerajaan bagi 760 rakyat Brunei yang kini berada di Timur Tengah, dan apakah protokol pemindahan yang telah disediakan sekiranya konflik meningkat dengan lebih mendadak?

 

•    Memandangkan belanjawan TK 2026/2027 digubal sebelum tercetusnya konflik ini, adakah kerajaan bercadang membentangkan belanjawan tambahan atau rangka kerja fiskal yang disemak bagi mencerminkan realiti global yang telah berubah?

MMN adalah dewan perbincangan tertinggi Brunei. Sebagaimana yang diingatkan oleh titah semasa pembukaan Persidangan Ke-22, dewan itu sepatutnya berfungsi bukan sekadar sebagai upacara tahunan, tetapi sebagai gelanggang dialog yang membina dan perbincangan isu-isu hakiki yang menyentuh kehidupan rakyat dan masa depan negara. Tiada isu yang lebih nyata, atau lebih mendesak, daripada isu yang sedang kita hadapi hari ini.

TEKANAN YANG TERSEMBUNYI: SUBSIDI DAN SEDEKAD DEFISIT

Ada warga Brunei yang mungkin berasa tenang: harga petrol di pam tidak berubah. Bahan api masih disubsidi. Kehidupan nampaknya berjalan seperti biasa. Ketenangan itu, walaupun dapat dimaklumi, menyembunyikan satu hakikat yang getir — hakikat yang setiap warganegara yang prihatin wajib memahami.

Apabila harga minyak mentah global melonjak kepada $110 atau $120 setong, pengguna di stesen petrol tidak merasainya — kerana kerajaan menyerap selisih harga itu. Namun kerajaan sungguh-sungguh merasakannya. Setiap liter bahan api bersubsidi yang dijual di Brunei pada harga di bawah pasaran adalah satu liter yang dibayar oleh kerajaan dari perbendaharaan sendiri. Dan apabila harga global terus menjulang, tanggungan itu semakin berat dari hari ke hari.

Ini penting sekali kerana Brunei telah menanggung defisit belanjawan selama lebih satu dekad. Tujuh kali kekurangan belanjawan dalam sepuluh tahun kewangan yang lalu. Defisit TK 2026/2027 diunjurkan pada BND2.72 bilion — dan unjuran itu dibuat sebelum perang Iran tercetus, sebelum harga minyak melangkaui $100 setong. Defisit fiskal konsolidasi sudah mencecah 13.3% daripada KDNK pada 2024, merosot daripada 11.9% tahun sebelumnya. Dan 75% daripada hasil kerajaan bergantung kepada minyak dan gas — sektor yang kini dilanda pergolakan yang tidak menentu.

 

REALITI FISKAL BRUNEI — SEPINTAS LALU   •    Defisit belanjawan dalam 7 daripada 10 tahun kewangan yang lalu — masalah struktur, bukan kitaran semata-mata   •    Defisit TK 2026/2027: BND2.72 bilion — angka yang digubal sebelum perang Iran tercetus   •   Defisit fiskal: 13.3% daripada KDNK (2024), semakin parah dari tahun ke tahun   •    Hasil minyak dan gas: merosot daripada BND1.93 bilion kepada BND1.499 bilion — sebelum perang   •    Belanjawan subsidi dikira pada ~AS$80 setong — harga Brent kini melangkaui $100   •    Defisit dibiayai daripada rizab fiskal yang terkumpul semasa zaman kegemilangan minyak — rizab itu ada hadnya

 

Harga petrol di pam mungkin tidak berubah esok. Tetapi setiap hari ia dikekalkan pada harga buatan sementara harga global terus membara, kerajaan Brunei membayar selisih itu dari perbendaharaan yang sudah semakin terhakis selama satu dekad. Itulah kos yang setiap warga Brunei perlu fahami — kerana lambat-laun, dalam satu cara atau cara yang lain, ia pasti akan pulang kepada kita.

CARA-CARA LAIN PERANG INI MENGETUK PINTU WARGA BRUNEI

•       Harga makanan akan naik. Brunei mengimport lebih 90 peratus daripada keperluan makanannya. Apabila kos bahan api global melonjak, begitu jugalah kos pengangkutan, penyejukan, baja, dan input pertanian. Harga gandum di peringkat dunia sudah pun meningkat. Makanan di atas meja anda menempuh perjalanan yang jauh sebelum sampai ke sini — dan perjalanan itu kini semakin mahal.

 

•    Rantaian bekalan berada di bawah tekanan yang teruk. Syarikat-syarikat petrokimia di seluruh Asia telah mengisytiharkan force majeure. Kilang-kilang penapisan di Singapura dan Malaysia telah mengurangkan pengeluaran. Kira-kira 20,000 anak kapal terkandas di Teluk. Barangan pengguna, alat ganti, elektronik — semuanya akan terjejas dan semakin mahal.

 

•    Perjalanan udara lebih mahal dan terganggu. Ruang udara Timur Tengah ditutup. Syarikat-syarikat penerbangan terpaksa mengubah laluan penerbangan, menambah waktu dan kos bahan api bagi setiap perjalanan. Harga minyak jet telah lebih daripada dua kali ganda. Bagi warga Brunei — pelajar di perantauan, keluarga yang ingin menjenguk orang tersayang, pekerja dalam transit — ini adalah kos yang terasa langsung di kocek.

 

•    Jiran-jiran ASEAN kita sudah pun dalam keadaan kecemasan. Filipina telah beralih kepada minggu kerja empat hari bagi kakitangan kerajaan. Thailand mengharamkan eksport minyak. Vietnam menggunakan dana penstabilan bahan api. Indonesia berdepan dengan pelanggaran had defisit belanjawan. Mereka adalah rakan dagang dan saudara serantau Brunei — apabila ekonomi mereka lemah, ekonomi kita turut menanggung padahnya.

PENGAJARAN YANG TIDAK BOLEH KITA ABAIKAN

Krisis ini tidak melahirkan kelemahan Brunei. Ia hanya telanjangkannya — sekali lagi.

Sebuah perang di Timur Tengah seharusnya tidak mampu menggugat ketahanan makanan atau kestabilan kewangan sebuah negara yang dikurniakan Allah dengan minyak, gas, dan kekayaan sumber alam yang melimpah-ruah. Namun demikianlah keadaan kita hari ini. Lebih 90 peratus bergantung kepada import makanan. Defisit belanjawan yang berstruktur, berterusan lebih satu dekad. Ekonomi yang masih terlalu banyak bergantung kepada hasil hidrokarbon. Rejim subsidi yang dibina atas andaian harga minyak yang sudah jauh ketinggalan zaman. Ini bukan takdir. Ini adalah hasil daripada keputusan-keputusan dasar yang ditunda terlalu lama.

Wawasan 2035 direka khusus untuk menangani kelemahan-kelemahan ini. Menteri Kewangan dan Ekonomi II sendiri telah meletakkan belanjawan semasa di bawah tema lima tahun: 'Bersama Menjayakan Wawasan Brunei 2035' — merumuskan ini sebagai dekad penentu yang akan mencorak arah tuju negara. Rumusan itu tepat. Tetapi dekad yang penentu menuntut tindakan yang sepadan dengan keperluannya — bukan sekadar berjimat-cermat atas landasan yang sama, yang oleh pengakuan kerajaan sendiri, sudah tidak mampan. Kemendesakan reformasi sebenar tidak pernah sepenting hari ini.

APA YANG BOLEH DILAKUKAN OLEH WARGA BRUNEI SEKARANG

Walaupun kita tidak berkuasa mengawal peristiwa di Teluk Parsi, ada tindakan yang boleh kita lakukan dengan bijaksana di sini, di tanah air kita sendiri:

 

•    Berbelanja dengan berhemah. Elakkan pembelian secara panik. Namun rancangkanlah perbelanjaan isi rumah dengan jangkaan yang realistik bahawa kos sara hidup akan lebih tinggi dalam minggu dan bulan-bulan mendatang.

 

•    Kurangkan penggunaan bahan api yang tidak perlu. Gabungkan perjalanan, berkongsi kenderaan seboleh mungkin. Ingatlah — setiap liter yang dijimatkan adalah satu liter kurang yang terpaksa ditanggung oleh kerajaan dari rizab yang sudah tersepit.

 

•    Sokong hasil dan perniagaan tempatan. Semakin banyak kita membeli makanan yang ditanam secara tempatan dan menyokong usahawan tempatan, semakin teguh daya tahan kita sebagai sebuah masyarakat tatkala rantaian bekalan global terganggu.

 

•   Saring maklumat dengan teliti. Maklumat palsu semasa krisis melahirkan kepanikan dan kemudaratan yang sebenar. Pastikan kesahihan sebelum dikongsi. Keadaan ini sudah cukup serius tanpa ditambah dengan fitnah dan tokok-tambah.

 

•    Desak wakil-wakil anda bertanggungjawab. Tanyakan apakah langkah-langkah kecemasan yang tersedia. Tanyakan mengenai simpanan makanan dan bahan api strategik negara. Tanyakan apakah rancangan bagi membendung defisit struktur sebelum bantal fiskal negara habis. Tanyakan tentang keselamatan warga Brunei di Timur Tengah. Ini adalah soalan-soalan yang sah, yang berhak dikemukakan oleh setiap rakyat — dan MMN wujud tepat bagi menjawabnya.

Dunia sedang melalui salah satu detik paling berbahaya dan paling mengguncang ekonomi dalam satu generasi. Negara-negara kecil seperti Brunei tidak menyulut api-api ini — tetapi kita boleh terbakar olehnya jika kita tidak berwaspada dan tidak bersedia. Pertahanan yang paling ampuh adalah kesedaran yang jernih, kehematan yang bijaksana, perpaduan yang kukuh, dan keberanian untuk mengakui kelemahan struktur yang sudah terlalu lama kita pikul dalam diam.

Harga di pam mungkin bertahan hari ini. Persoalan yang perlu dijawab Brunei — di dewan Majlis Mesyuarat Negara mahupun di ruang awam — ialah: hingga bila, dan dengan kos apa kepada hari esok?

Semoga Allah melindungi negara kita, memberi petunjuk kepada para pemimpin kita, dan mengurniakan kesabaran serta ketabahan kepada seluruh rakyat di zaman penuh kemelut ini.

Dari Meja Penasihat | KopiTalk with MHO