Endemic Phase – What it means

Brunei is entering COVID-19 endemic phase sooner than expected.

Thanks to its massive and rapid vaccination drive. As of today, almost 80% of the population in the Sultanate has taken their two-dose vaccination.

“With the vaccination success rate that has been achieved so far, Alhamdulillah, we have almost reached the target of 80% of the two-dose vaccination rate among the population in this country and will move into the Endemic Phase soon”, announced Minister of Health Dato Seri Setia Dr. Mohd Isham Jaafar
Wednesday 24 November 2021.

He said the Ministry of Health is now actively monitoring and examining the situation of the COVID-19 infection in Brunei as well as current developments abroad.

“Given that the Transition Phase has been implemented less than a week ago, the COVID-19 Steering Committee needs more time to consider the implementation of the Endemic Phase”, said the minister in his media statement.

He advised the public to wait for the announcement of the start of the implementation of the Endemic Phase.

Endemic Phase – What it means

First, let us be clear about the words like a pandemic, epidemic, and endemic.

We have been hearing these words regularly when the COVID-19 virus spread all over the world resulting in a global crisis of unprecedented reach and proportion.

Over time, we became familiar with these words yet some of us perhaps still confused about the distinction between them.

What is an endemic, epidemic and, pandemic?

Now we are in a transition phase from pandemic to endemic.

So what does it exactly mean?

Understanding those medical terms is important.

It can help us digest public health news better and give appropriate responses.

So what is "ENDEMIC"?

"ENDEMIC" is a disease that affects a large number of people within a community, population, or region.

In this case, we are talking about COVID-19. The disease emerged in Wuhan, China in late 2019.

At first, it was an "EPIDEMIC", a sudden outbreak that spread rapidly among the people in that city.

Despite strict quarantine measures, public health officials were unable to contain the virus.

In March 2020, the World Health Organization declared it a "PANDEMIC", meaning that it had spread widely around the world.

A year later, the COVID-19 pandemic was still raging. However, in early 2021, almost 90 percent of researchers surveyed predicted that it would become endemic over time.

In other words, they believe it will not be completely eradicated but instead will have a constant presence among particular populations in various parts of the world.
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If so, then, like other endemic diseases, COVID-19 may flare up from time to time, resulting in local epidemics.

So "ENDEMIC" is when COVID-19 is contained to a particular people or country.

The spread of the “ENDEMIC” disease is described as an “EPIDEMIC” and it became a “PANDEMIC” when it started to spread over multiple countries and continents.

Just remember a “PANDEMIC” is an “EPIDEMIC” that travels everywhere across the world.

What happened during the endemic phase?

This we have to wait for the announcement of the start of the implementation of the Endemic Phase.

However, of course, we expect most restrictions to be gradually lifted, mass testing, contact tracing, and quarantine will eventually stop, and travel without quarantine will be reinstated.

We will also expect some measures to stay in place because cases may continue to be imported.

People will probably be encouraged to continue wearing masks in crowded places and maintaining hand hygiene. Perhaps social distancing would still be around for a while.

Testing for COVID-19 may still be needed, but likely only to check if someone who is sick has the disease.

How about conducting tests in the community setting or tracing and quarantining close contacts of those infected? Maybe there is no need for that anymore.

Testing at the borders will probably be imposed, but perhaps more selective, depending on the country the traveler is coming from.

So, there will be so many other things that will need to be taken into consideration and looked into in how to carry on with our lives with COVID-19 in the Epidemic Phase.

As stated by the minister of health, given that the Transition Phase has been implemented less than a week ago, the COVID-19 Steering Committee needs more time to consider the implementation of the Endemic Phase.

Can Brunei move away from Covid-19 pandemic?

The answer is with us, the people of Brunei.

The first wave of the pandemic stormed the Sultanate in March 2020.

We were not that ready then to battle the raging virus. Daily caseloads of Covid-19 in the country rose, putting our health care system under pressure. Our education system and social economy too were impacted by the pandemic.

We immediately went on high gear to stabilize the critical situation. We put the country under semi lockdown. We imposed restrictions on people's movement, interactions, gathering in public places, temporarily closed mosques and other places of worship, schools, malls, marketplaces, shops, and offices in efforts to put the spread of the virus under control.

We decisively took action to ease the pressure on our health care system by setting up quickly isolation centers to care for those infected in categories 1, 2, and 3.

It was a hard battle but with people strongly behind the government efforts, we amazingly were able to prove our resilience and emerge from the shock of the first wave Covid pandemic.

Lives return to almost normal for almost over a year after months of vigorously battling the pandemic with the 'Covid Zero approach'

Then came August 2021, Covid-19 cases spiked at their highest in 15 months: 42 new cases to bring up the total confirmed cases to 406.

This time we were ready.

Brunei again immediately went into semi lockdown and began her fight to bring the Covid pandemic under control. Within over three months, Brunei managed to tame the spread of the virus at the same time launched a massive vaccination drive to achieve herd immunity in the Sultanate.

We did it once and we did it twice. No reason now that we could not this time around.

Brunei shall emerge stronger from the shock of the second wave Covid-19 pandemic that hit the nation over three months ago, in sya Allah.

On the path of living with Covid

On this auspicious day (Friday), Brunei with her highly vaccinated population begins its journey on the path out of the pandemic.

The nation is now moving forward, albeit in phases to adapt and live with the Covid-19 virus that will be around forever like SARS, H1N1, and other influenza-like
illnesses.   

As of yesterday, over 90 percent of the population have a single dose vaccination while over 70 percent have double dose vaccination.

Only 21 new cases were recorded yesterday with active cases going down to 444 out of which only five cases in category 5.

With the reopening of businesses and places, the loosening of restrictions for dining establishments, workplaces, and entertainment venues, Covid-19 cases - driven by over-excitement, complacency, and carelessness - are expected to spike in the coming days and months.  

Unless we behave well, contained our excitement, strictly follow the MOH Covid SOP and follow the lead by the government in living with the Covid-19, then we will not be far from reaching the endemic stage. In sya Allah.

COMPLACENCY, COVIDIOTS CAN RUIN OUR EFFORTS TO RECOVER

NOV 10, 2021: Businesses and places are reopening come Friday 19 November 2021. We are reopening them because of the economy and not because it is safe now.

Like others, our economy too is not shielded from the Covid pandemic's economic consequences.

We need to move quickly to recover from the serious economic downturn caused by the pandemic.

We need to quickly adapt to living with covid that will stay with us forever like HN1N1 and many other influenza-like illnesses.

We expect very minimal numbers of daily active cases during this first phase of 'Operasi Pulih' (Operation Recovery). Probably below 100 a day or less.

MOH will of course closely monitor the situation. It will be closely watching particularly the number of cases in categories 3, 4, and 5.

If it sees a sign that active cases in those categories are shooting up and will overwhelm our health system in no time if necessary measures are not taken immediately, then we will be back to square one; the whole nation's semi lockdown.

But this situation can be avoided if we continue to follow the MOH COVID PANDEMIC SOP when out and about in our daily life during the recovery period besides being fully vaccinated.

Complacency plus covidiots are the biggest threat to our health and safety during this recovery period.

Complacency leads to carelessness, covidiots couldn't be bothered, and reckless. Both spell disaster if not addressed, regulated, and managed effectively.

So during this recovery period, we need to focus more on managing these threats. We need to be extra vigilant against these two factors that can ruin our efforts to regain normalcy which we have lost during the pandemic. MHO