PARTI PEMBANGUNAN BANGSA (NDP) BRUNEI

DARI MEJA PENASIHAT

21 Mac 2026

Perang di Sana — Tapi Tempiasnye Sampai ke Rumah Kita

Apa Erti Perang AS-Israel-Iran Kepada Setiap Warga Brunei

Gambar-gambar yang mengalir dari Iran, Israel, dan Teluk Parsi mungkin terasa jauh. Konflik di bumi orang. Peperangan antara kuasa-kuasa besar yang tidak ada kena-mengena dengan kita. Itulah sangkaan sebahagian daripada kita. Namun, sangkaan itu silap. Apa yang sedang berkecamuk di Timur Tengah hari ini akan mengetuk pintu rumah kita juga. Ia akan terserlah pada harga barang keperluan di pasar raya, pada bil elektrik, pada tambang penerbangan untuk mengunjungi sanak-saudara di perantauan — dan yang paling berat sekali, pada kewangan sebuah kerajaan yang telah sekian lama menanggung beban yang kian bertambah bagi pihak rakyatnya.

Perang AS-Israel-Iran 2026 bukan sekadar krisis serantau. Ia adalah gegaran struktur kepada ekonomi dunia — dan Brunei berdiri tepat di laluan ribut itu. Kenyataan ini diterbitkan bukan untuk menebar ketakutan, tetapi untuk menyedarkan. Sebagai warga Brunei, kita berhak mengetahui hakikat yang sedang kita hadapi — dan wajib bersedia menghadapinya.

APA YANG SEDANG BERLAKU — DAN MENGAPA IA PENTING

Pada 28 Februari 2026, Amerika Syarikat dan Israel melancarkan serangan udara mengejut ke atas Iran, mengorbankan Pemimpin Tertinggi negara itu dan mencetuskan gelombang serangan balas peluru berpandu serta dron Iran merentasi seluruh rantau. Negara-negara Teluk — Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, Arab Saudi, dan UAE — semuanya tidak terlepas dari tempias serangan itu. Menjelang Hari ke-21 konflik ini, lebih 1,400 rakyat Iran telah gugur, 18,000 orang awam cedera, dan 204 kanak-kanak maut. Tiga juta rakyat Iran terpaksa meninggalkan tempat tinggal mereka.

Iran membalas dengan menutup Selat Hormuz — laluan laut yang sempit itu, yang setiap harinya dilalui kira-kira 20 juta tong minyak, serta satu perlima daripada bekalan gas asli cecair dunia. Laluan itu kini secara hakikinya telah tersumbat. Akibatnya sedang mengalir deras merentasi ekonomi dunia, dengan kelajuan yang sepatutnya membimbangkan setiap orang daripada kita.

APA YANG TELAH DISUARAKAN DI DEWAN RAKYAT KITA

Perang ini tidak berlalu tanpa perhatian di dewan perundangan kita sendiri. Persidangan Pertama Majlis Mesyuarat Negara (MMN) Ke-22 yang bermula pada 12 Mac 2026 telah mendengar dua kenyataan yang sarat makna — dan kedua-duanya wajar mendapat perhatian seluruh rakyat.

MENTERI LUAR NEGERI II — MMN KE-22, 16 MAC 2026 Ketika berucap dalam perbahasan Rang Undang-Undang Bekalan, Menteri Luar Negeri II tidak membataskan diri kepada kesopanan diplomatik semata-mata. Beliau menamakan perang itu dengan terang. Beliau menyatakan penolakan tegas Brunei terhadap tindakan tentera ke atas Republik Islam Iran. Beliau mengesahkan bahawa serangan balas telah menular ke negara-negara jiran Iran — dan bahawa beliau sendiri telah menghubungi menteri luar negeri tujuh buah negara dalam tempoh yang singkat sesudah itu: Oman, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Arab Saudi, Jordan, dan UAE, bagi menyampaikan keprihatinan mendalam dan perasaan setiakawan Brunei. Namun satu ayat beliau — ringkas, padat — pasti telah menghentikan degupan jantung setiap ibu bapa, suami isteri, dan adik-beradik yang mempunyai orang tersayang di luar negeri: "Setakat hari ini, seramai 760 rakyat Brunei sedang berada di rantau Timur Tengah. Mereka telah dinasihatkan agar sentiasa berwaspada dan mengambil semua langkah berjaga-jaga yang perlu. Kementerian sedang memantau keadaan." Bagi keluarga 760 orang itu — pekerja di Teluk, pelajar di Jordan, warga Brunei yang menunaikan Umrah — itu bukan sekadar kenyataan dasar luar negeri. Itu adalah sesuatu yang menyentuh hati sanubari. Itulah suara sebuah kerajaan yang berkata kepada rakyatnya: kami tahu di mana orang-orang tersayang anda berada, dan kami sentiasa memerhati.

 

MENTERI KEWANGAN DAN EKONOMI II — MMN KE-22, 14 MAC 2026 Yang Berhormat Dato Seri Setia Dr Haji Mohd Amin Liew bin Abdullah, semasa membentangkan Rang Undang-Undang Bekalan BND6.3 bilion bagi Tahun Kewangan 2026/2027, berterus-terang mengenai kedudukan fiskal Brunei yang terdedah kepada kejutan luar: "Ketidakpastian ekonomi global — yang dipengaruhi oleh ketegangan geopolitik di Timur Tengah, perubahan dalam struktur perdagangan global, prospek pertumbuhan global yang sederhana serta cabaran perubahan iklim — memerlukan kerajaan mengambil langkah-langkah yang berhati-hati dan strategik sambil memastikan negara mengekalkan kestabilan makroekonomi dan ketahanan fiskal." Beliau selanjutnya mengesahkan bahawa kerajaan akan mengekalkan subsidi ke atas beras dan bahan api, mengiktiraf peranan subsidi itu dalam melindungi rakyat daripada tekanan inflasi — namun turut menegaskan bahawa gangguan rantaian bekalan global dan ketidaktentuan harga minyak antarabangsa, yang dicetuskan oleh ketegangan geopolitik, terus melanda ekonomi seluruh dunia. Defisit belanjawan yang diunjurkan bagi TK 2026/2027 ialah BND2.72 bilion — jurang antara perbelanjaan BND6.3 bilion dan hasil yang diunjurkan sebanyak BND3.53 bilion. Hasil minyak dan gas telah merosot dengan ketara, daripada BND1.93 bilion kepada BND1.499 bilion. Angka-angka ini dibentangkan sebelum perang Iran semakin mengguncang pasaran tenaga global. Perang Iran sejak itu telah menjadikan kedudukan fiskal yang sudah mencabar itu jauh lebih membimbangkan.

 

Kedua-dua kenyataan ini, jika diteliti bersama, menyampaikan satu mesej yang jelas: kerajaan sedar akan keseriusan keadaan ini. Persoalannya ialah sama ada kesedaran itu akan diterjemahkan kepada perbahasan awam yang terbuka, bertanggungjawab, dan bermakna — dan itulah sebabnya NDP menyeru agar perkara ini diletakkan secara rasmi di hadapan Majlis Mesyuarat Negara.

SERUAN UNTUK PERBAHASAN TERBUKA DI MAJLIS MESYUARAT NEGARA

Parti Pembangunan Bangsa (NDP) menyeru Majlis Mesyuarat Negara agar memperuntukkan masa yang khusus dalam persidangan semasa atau akan datang untuk mengadakan perbahasan berstruktur mengenai impak ekonomi dan fiskal perang Iran 2026 terhadap Negara Brunei Darussalam.

Ini bukan seruan untuk menabur kebimbangan. Ini adalah seruan untuk akauntabiliti dan ketelusan. Rakyat Brunei berhak mendapat jawapan yang jelas dan rasmi bagi soalan-soalan berikut:

•    Apakah penilaian kerajaan mengenai tempoh harga minyak global akan kekal tinggi — dan berapakah anggaran kos tambahan kepada belanjawan subsidi bahan api bagi setiap bulan harga minyak Brent kekal melebihi AS$100 setong?

 

•   Apakah langkah-langkah kecemasan yang tersedia bagi melindungi simpanan makanan strategik dan rantaian bekalan Brunei sekiranya Selat Hormuz terus tersumbat melebihi jangka masa yang pendek?

 

•    Berapa lama rejim subsidi semasa mampu dipertahankan dalam keadaan harga tenaga global yang tinggi sebelum rizab fiskal negara terhakis — dan apakah ambang yang akan memaksa kerajaan menilai semula dasar ini?

 

•    Apakah rancangan kerajaan bagi 760 rakyat Brunei yang kini berada di Timur Tengah, dan apakah protokol pemindahan yang telah disediakan sekiranya konflik meningkat dengan lebih mendadak?

 

•    Memandangkan belanjawan TK 2026/2027 digubal sebelum tercetusnya konflik ini, adakah kerajaan bercadang membentangkan belanjawan tambahan atau rangka kerja fiskal yang disemak bagi mencerminkan realiti global yang telah berubah?

MMN adalah dewan perbincangan tertinggi Brunei. Sebagaimana yang diingatkan oleh titah semasa pembukaan Persidangan Ke-22, dewan itu sepatutnya berfungsi bukan sekadar sebagai upacara tahunan, tetapi sebagai gelanggang dialog yang membina dan perbincangan isu-isu hakiki yang menyentuh kehidupan rakyat dan masa depan negara. Tiada isu yang lebih nyata, atau lebih mendesak, daripada isu yang sedang kita hadapi hari ini.

TEKANAN YANG TERSEMBUNYI: SUBSIDI DAN SEDEKAD DEFISIT

Ada warga Brunei yang mungkin berasa tenang: harga petrol di pam tidak berubah. Bahan api masih disubsidi. Kehidupan nampaknya berjalan seperti biasa. Ketenangan itu, walaupun dapat dimaklumi, menyembunyikan satu hakikat yang getir — hakikat yang setiap warganegara yang prihatin wajib memahami.

Apabila harga minyak mentah global melonjak kepada $110 atau $120 setong, pengguna di stesen petrol tidak merasainya — kerana kerajaan menyerap selisih harga itu. Namun kerajaan sungguh-sungguh merasakannya. Setiap liter bahan api bersubsidi yang dijual di Brunei pada harga di bawah pasaran adalah satu liter yang dibayar oleh kerajaan dari perbendaharaan sendiri. Dan apabila harga global terus menjulang, tanggungan itu semakin berat dari hari ke hari.

Ini penting sekali kerana Brunei telah menanggung defisit belanjawan selama lebih satu dekad. Tujuh kali kekurangan belanjawan dalam sepuluh tahun kewangan yang lalu. Defisit TK 2026/2027 diunjurkan pada BND2.72 bilion — dan unjuran itu dibuat sebelum perang Iran tercetus, sebelum harga minyak melangkaui $100 setong. Defisit fiskal konsolidasi sudah mencecah 13.3% daripada KDNK pada 2024, merosot daripada 11.9% tahun sebelumnya. Dan 75% daripada hasil kerajaan bergantung kepada minyak dan gas — sektor yang kini dilanda pergolakan yang tidak menentu.

 

REALITI FISKAL BRUNEI — SEPINTAS LALU   •    Defisit belanjawan dalam 7 daripada 10 tahun kewangan yang lalu — masalah struktur, bukan kitaran semata-mata   •    Defisit TK 2026/2027: BND2.72 bilion — angka yang digubal sebelum perang Iran tercetus   •   Defisit fiskal: 13.3% daripada KDNK (2024), semakin parah dari tahun ke tahun   •    Hasil minyak dan gas: merosot daripada BND1.93 bilion kepada BND1.499 bilion — sebelum perang   •    Belanjawan subsidi dikira pada ~AS$80 setong — harga Brent kini melangkaui $100   •    Defisit dibiayai daripada rizab fiskal yang terkumpul semasa zaman kegemilangan minyak — rizab itu ada hadnya

 

Harga petrol di pam mungkin tidak berubah esok. Tetapi setiap hari ia dikekalkan pada harga buatan sementara harga global terus membara, kerajaan Brunei membayar selisih itu dari perbendaharaan yang sudah semakin terhakis selama satu dekad. Itulah kos yang setiap warga Brunei perlu fahami — kerana lambat-laun, dalam satu cara atau cara yang lain, ia pasti akan pulang kepada kita.

CARA-CARA LAIN PERANG INI MENGETUK PINTU WARGA BRUNEI

•       Harga makanan akan naik. Brunei mengimport lebih 90 peratus daripada keperluan makanannya. Apabila kos bahan api global melonjak, begitu jugalah kos pengangkutan, penyejukan, baja, dan input pertanian. Harga gandum di peringkat dunia sudah pun meningkat. Makanan di atas meja anda menempuh perjalanan yang jauh sebelum sampai ke sini — dan perjalanan itu kini semakin mahal.

 

•    Rantaian bekalan berada di bawah tekanan yang teruk. Syarikat-syarikat petrokimia di seluruh Asia telah mengisytiharkan force majeure. Kilang-kilang penapisan di Singapura dan Malaysia telah mengurangkan pengeluaran. Kira-kira 20,000 anak kapal terkandas di Teluk. Barangan pengguna, alat ganti, elektronik — semuanya akan terjejas dan semakin mahal.

 

•    Perjalanan udara lebih mahal dan terganggu. Ruang udara Timur Tengah ditutup. Syarikat-syarikat penerbangan terpaksa mengubah laluan penerbangan, menambah waktu dan kos bahan api bagi setiap perjalanan. Harga minyak jet telah lebih daripada dua kali ganda. Bagi warga Brunei — pelajar di perantauan, keluarga yang ingin menjenguk orang tersayang, pekerja dalam transit — ini adalah kos yang terasa langsung di kocek.

 

•    Jiran-jiran ASEAN kita sudah pun dalam keadaan kecemasan. Filipina telah beralih kepada minggu kerja empat hari bagi kakitangan kerajaan. Thailand mengharamkan eksport minyak. Vietnam menggunakan dana penstabilan bahan api. Indonesia berdepan dengan pelanggaran had defisit belanjawan. Mereka adalah rakan dagang dan saudara serantau Brunei — apabila ekonomi mereka lemah, ekonomi kita turut menanggung padahnya.

PENGAJARAN YANG TIDAK BOLEH KITA ABAIKAN

Krisis ini tidak melahirkan kelemahan Brunei. Ia hanya telanjangkannya — sekali lagi.

Sebuah perang di Timur Tengah seharusnya tidak mampu menggugat ketahanan makanan atau kestabilan kewangan sebuah negara yang dikurniakan Allah dengan minyak, gas, dan kekayaan sumber alam yang melimpah-ruah. Namun demikianlah keadaan kita hari ini. Lebih 90 peratus bergantung kepada import makanan. Defisit belanjawan yang berstruktur, berterusan lebih satu dekad. Ekonomi yang masih terlalu banyak bergantung kepada hasil hidrokarbon. Rejim subsidi yang dibina atas andaian harga minyak yang sudah jauh ketinggalan zaman. Ini bukan takdir. Ini adalah hasil daripada keputusan-keputusan dasar yang ditunda terlalu lama.

Wawasan 2035 direka khusus untuk menangani kelemahan-kelemahan ini. Menteri Kewangan dan Ekonomi II sendiri telah meletakkan belanjawan semasa di bawah tema lima tahun: 'Bersama Menjayakan Wawasan Brunei 2035' — merumuskan ini sebagai dekad penentu yang akan mencorak arah tuju negara. Rumusan itu tepat. Tetapi dekad yang penentu menuntut tindakan yang sepadan dengan keperluannya — bukan sekadar berjimat-cermat atas landasan yang sama, yang oleh pengakuan kerajaan sendiri, sudah tidak mampan. Kemendesakan reformasi sebenar tidak pernah sepenting hari ini.

APA YANG BOLEH DILAKUKAN OLEH WARGA BRUNEI SEKARANG

Walaupun kita tidak berkuasa mengawal peristiwa di Teluk Parsi, ada tindakan yang boleh kita lakukan dengan bijaksana di sini, di tanah air kita sendiri:

 

•    Berbelanja dengan berhemah. Elakkan pembelian secara panik. Namun rancangkanlah perbelanjaan isi rumah dengan jangkaan yang realistik bahawa kos sara hidup akan lebih tinggi dalam minggu dan bulan-bulan mendatang.

 

•    Kurangkan penggunaan bahan api yang tidak perlu. Gabungkan perjalanan, berkongsi kenderaan seboleh mungkin. Ingatlah — setiap liter yang dijimatkan adalah satu liter kurang yang terpaksa ditanggung oleh kerajaan dari rizab yang sudah tersepit.

 

•    Sokong hasil dan perniagaan tempatan. Semakin banyak kita membeli makanan yang ditanam secara tempatan dan menyokong usahawan tempatan, semakin teguh daya tahan kita sebagai sebuah masyarakat tatkala rantaian bekalan global terganggu.

 

•   Saring maklumat dengan teliti. Maklumat palsu semasa krisis melahirkan kepanikan dan kemudaratan yang sebenar. Pastikan kesahihan sebelum dikongsi. Keadaan ini sudah cukup serius tanpa ditambah dengan fitnah dan tokok-tambah.

 

•    Desak wakil-wakil anda bertanggungjawab. Tanyakan apakah langkah-langkah kecemasan yang tersedia. Tanyakan mengenai simpanan makanan dan bahan api strategik negara. Tanyakan apakah rancangan bagi membendung defisit struktur sebelum bantal fiskal negara habis. Tanyakan tentang keselamatan warga Brunei di Timur Tengah. Ini adalah soalan-soalan yang sah, yang berhak dikemukakan oleh setiap rakyat — dan MMN wujud tepat bagi menjawabnya.

Dunia sedang melalui salah satu detik paling berbahaya dan paling mengguncang ekonomi dalam satu generasi. Negara-negara kecil seperti Brunei tidak menyulut api-api ini — tetapi kita boleh terbakar olehnya jika kita tidak berwaspada dan tidak bersedia. Pertahanan yang paling ampuh adalah kesedaran yang jernih, kehematan yang bijaksana, perpaduan yang kukuh, dan keberanian untuk mengakui kelemahan struktur yang sudah terlalu lama kita pikul dalam diam.

Harga di pam mungkin bertahan hari ini. Persoalan yang perlu dijawab Brunei — di dewan Majlis Mesyuarat Negara mahupun di ruang awam — ialah: hingga bila, dan dengan kos apa kepada hari esok?

Semoga Allah melindungi negara kita, memberi petunjuk kepada para pemimpin kita, dan mengurniakan kesabaran serta ketabahan kepada seluruh rakyat di zaman penuh kemelut ini.

Dari Meja Penasihat | KopiTalk with MHO

KOPITALK WITH MHO

Malai Hassan Othman

21 March 2026

A War Far Away — But Its Cost Hits Home

What the US-Israel-Iran War Means for Brunei

 

The images coming out of Iran, Israel, and the Gulf may feel distant — conflicts in faraway lands between powerful nations that have nothing to do with us. That comfort is an illusion. What is unfolding in the Middle East today will arrive at Brunei's doorstep. It will show up in the price of everyday goods at the supermarket, in the electricity bill, in the airfare to visit family abroad — and, most critically, in the fiscal health of a government that has been quietly shouldering a growing burden on behalf of its people for over a decade.

The 2026 US-Israel-Iran war is not just a regional crisis. It is a structural shock to the global economy — and Brunei sits squarely in its path. This column is written not to alarm, but to lay out the realities clearly, as they stand on Day 21 of a conflict that shows no sign of swift resolution.

WHAT IS HAPPENING — AND WHY IT MATTERS

On 28 February 2026, the United States and Israel launched surprise airstrikes on Iran, killing the Supreme Leader and triggering a wave of retaliatory Iranian missile and drone strikes across the region. Gulf states — Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE — have all been struck. By Day 21, over 1,400 Iranians have been killed, 18,000 civilians injured, and 204 children are dead. Three million Iranians have been displaced.

Iran's response has been to close the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow chokepoint through which roughly 20 million barrels of oil per day, and one-fifth of the world's liquefied natural gas supply, normally passes. That waterway is now effectively shut. The consequences are cascading across the world economy at a pace that should concern every citizen of every small, trade-dependent nation — including ours.

WHAT OUR OWN LEGISLATURE HAS ALREADY HEARD

This war did not go unnoticed in Brunei's own halls of governance. The 22nd Session of the Legislative Council, which opened on 12 March 2026, has already heard two statements that deserve far wider public attention than they have received.

THE MINISTER OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS II — 22nd LEGCO, 16 MARCH 2026 Speaking during the Supply Bill debate, the Minister of Foreign Affairs II did not confine himself to diplomatic pleasantries. He named the war. He stated Brunei's formal condemnation of the military actions against the Islamic Republic of Iran. He confirmed that retaliatory strikes had extended to Iran's neighbours — and that he had personally contacted the foreign ministers of seven countries in the days that followed: Oman, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and the UAE, to convey Brunei's deep concern and solidarity. "As of today, 760 Bruneian nationals are currently in the Middle East region. They have been advised to remain vigilant and take all necessary precautions. The ministry is monitoring the situation." For the families of those 760 people — workers in the Gulf, students in Jordan, Bruneians on Umrah — that was not a foreign policy statement. That was personal. It was the sound of a government saying to its people: we know where your loved ones are, and we are watching.

 

THE 2ND MINISTER OF FINANCE AND ECONOMY — 22nd LEGCO, 14 MARCH 2026 Yang Berhormat Dato Seri Setia Dr Haji Mohd Amin Liew bin Abdullah, presenting the BND6.3 billion Supply Bill for FY 2026/2027, was direct about Brunei's fiscal exposure to external shocks: "Global economic uncertainties — influenced by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, changes in global trade structures, moderate global growth prospects and the challenges of climate change — require the government to adopt cautious and strategic measures while ensuring the nation maintains macroeconomic stability and fiscal resilience." He further confirmed that subsidies on rice and fuel will be maintained — a commitment made against a projected deficit of BND2.72 billion, with oil and gas revenue already fallen from BND1.93 billion to BND1.499 billion. These were pre-war figures. The Iran war has since made an already precarious fiscal position considerably more so.

 

Both statements, taken together, tell us something important: the government is alert to what is happening. The question worth pressing — and that I raise here as a matter of public interest — is whether that alertness will translate into the kind of open, substantive debate that the moment demands.

THE CASE FOR A LEGCO DEBATE

The titah at the opening of the 22nd LegCo Session was clear in its intent: the annual sitting should serve not merely as a formal gathering, but as an important platform for constructive dialogue and the discussion of real issues affecting the nation and its people. It is difficult to think of a more real or more pressing issue than the economic and fiscal impact of an active war on Brunei's primary export market, energy infrastructure, and supply chains.

There are questions the public is entitled to have answered — on the floor of the chamber, on the record:

•    What is the projected additional cost to the fuel subsidy budget for every month that Brent crude remains above US$100 per barrel — and how long can that cost be absorbed before policy must change?

•    What contingency measures exist for Brunei's strategic food reserves and supply chains should the Strait of Hormuz remain disrupted beyond weeks into months?

•    What is the threshold — in oil price, in deficit figure, in reserve depletion — that would compel a formal review of the subsidy regime?

•   What evacuation protocols are in place for the 760 Bruneian nationals currently in the Middle East, should the conflict escalate further?

•    Given that the FY 2026/2027 budget was formulated before this conflict erupted, does the government intend to table a supplementary budget or revised fiscal framework reflecting the changed global reality?

These are not hostile questions. They are the questions a responsible legislature asks — and that a well-informed public deserves to hear answered.

THE HIDDEN PRESSURE: SUBSIDIES AND A DECADE OF DEFICITS

Here is what many Bruneians may not immediately grasp: the fact that petrol prices at the pump have not changed is not evidence that Brunei is insulated from this shock. It is evidence that the government is absorbing the shock on the public's behalf — and doing so from a fiscal position that was already under strain before the first missile was fired.

When global crude prices spike to $110 or $120 per barrel, every litre of subsidised fuel sold in Brunei below market rate is a litre the government pays for out of its own pocket. As global prices soar, that pocket grows heavier by the day — and it is a pocket that has been running on deficit for over a decade.

The numbers are worth stating plainly. Brunei recorded budget shortfalls in seven of the past ten financial years. The FY 2026/2027 deficit is projected at BND2.72 billion — before the war. The consolidated fiscal deficit stood at 13.3% of GDP in 2024. Oil and gas revenues — which account for 75% of government income — have been falling. The subsidy budget was calibrated against oil at around US$80 per barrel. Brent crude is now trading above $100 and Goldman Sachs warns it may stay there through 2027.

BRUNEI'S FISCAL POSITION — THE NUMBERS •       Budget deficit in 7 of the past 10 financial years — structural, not cyclical •    FY 2026/2027 projected deficit: BND2.72 billion — a pre-war estimate •    Fiscal deficit: 13.3% of GDP (2024), worsening year on year •    Oil and gas revenue: down from BND1.93 billion to BND1.499 billion — pre-war •    Subsidy budget calibrated at ~US$80/barrel — Brent now above $100 •    Deficits financed from finite fiscal reserves — not external borrowing, but not unlimited

 

The pump price may not change tomorrow. But every day it stays artificially low while global prices remain elevated, Brunei's government is paying the difference out of a wallet that has been getting thinner for a decade. That is a cost that will eventually come home — one way or another.

THE WIDER REACH OF THIS WAR

The fiscal pressure is the least visible impact. The others are more immediate.

•       Food prices will rise. Brunei imports over 90% of its food. Higher fuel costs mean higher shipping, refrigeration, fertiliser, and agricultural input costs. Global wheat prices have already moved. The food on your table is getting more expensive to bring here.

•    Supply chains are fracturing. Petrochemical companies across Asia have declared force majeure. Refineries in Singapore and Malaysia have cut output. Around 20,000 seafarers are stranded in the Gulf. Consumer goods, spare parts, and electronics will all be affected.

•    Air travel is costlier and disrupted. Middle Eastern airspace is closed. Airlines are rerouting flights, adding hours and fuel costs to every journey. Jet fuel prices have more than doubled. For Bruneians with family abroad, students overseas, or workers in transit, this is an immediate out-of-pocket reality.

•    Our ASEAN neighbours are already in crisis mode. The Philippines has moved to a four-day government work week. Thailand has banned oil exports. Vietnam is drawing down its fuel stabilisation fund. Indonesia faces a budget deficit breach. When our trading partners and regional neighbours slow down, Brunei does not remain untouched.

THE STRUCTURAL VULNERABILITY THIS CRISIS EXPOSES

This crisis did not create Brunei's vulnerabilities. It merely exposed them — again.

A war in the Middle East should not be able to threaten the food security or fiscal stability of a nation endowed with oil, gas, and abundant natural resources. And yet, here we are. Over 90% food import dependency. A structural budget deficit that has persisted for more than a decade. An economy overwhelmingly reliant on hydrocarbon revenues. A subsidy regime calibrated against oil prices that no longer reflect reality. These are not acts of God. They are policy outcomes, accumulated through years of deferred reform.

The 2nd Minister of Finance and Economy has himself framed the current budget under the theme: 'Together Achieving Wawasan Brunei 2035' — describing this as the decisive final decade that will shape the country's direction. He is right. But a decisive decade demands decisive action — not merely prudent management of an existing trajectory that, by the government's own admission, is fiscally unsustainable. The urgency of genuine economic diversification, food security investment, and structural reform has never been clearer than it is today.

WHAT BRUNEIANS CAN DO IN THE MEANTIME

While the guns fire elsewhere, there are practical things every household and every citizen can do:

•    Plan ahead financially. The cost of living will be higher in the weeks and months ahead. Plan your household budget accordingly. Avoid panic buying — it inflates the very prices you are trying to escape.

•     Use fuel wisely. Consolidate trips, carpool where possible. Every litre saved is one less litre the government subsidises from already strained reserves.

•    Buy local. Support locally grown food and local businesses. Community resilience is built one purchase at a time, not only through government policy.

•    Verify before sharing. Misinformation during a crisis amplifies panic and causes real harm. The situation is serious enough without exaggeration.

•    Ask questions of those in authority. What are the contingency plans? What are the strategic reserves? What happens to subsidies if oil stays above $100 into 2027? What is the plan for Bruneians stranded or at risk in the Middle East? A government that is asked good questions gives better answers.

Small nations do not start these fires. But we can be burned by them — especially when we have spent years deferring the reforms that would make us more resilient. The war in the Middle East is a tragedy for those living it. For Brunei, it is also a mirror. What we see in that mirror should prompt not just concern, but action.

The pump price may hold today. The harder question — the one that belongs in the Legislative Council chamber and in every serious public conversation — is: for how long, and at what cost to tomorrow?

May Allah protect our nation, guide our leaders with wisdom, and grant patience and resilience to our people in these uncertain times.

Malai Hassan Othman is a journalist, columnist, political advisor, and Chairman of the NDP Advisory Board. He writes the KopiTalk with MHO column.

 

Eight Days, One Budget, One Question: After the Answers Were Given, Who Stayed Responsible?

  

KOPITALK WITH MHO  |  22nd Legislative Council Session — Closing Report

 

 

 

Eight Days, One Budget, One Question:

After the Answers Were Given, Who Stayed Responsible?

KopiTalk with MHO  •  Closing Report  •  22nd Legislative Council Session  •  Days 1–8  |  11–19 March 2026  •  Session resumes 25 March 2026

 

A young man in Belait is wondering if the industry that built his family still has a place for him. A mother is still photocopying textbooks so her son can read. Eight days. BND6.3 billion. And one question that outlasted all the answers: when the session ends — who is still responsible?

 

 

 

The Promise

 

The session began, as it always does, with confidence. The budget was tabled. The numbers were structured. The direction was clear. There were strategies, frameworks, and priorities aligned with long-term national goals. The language was steady and assured.

 

It was the official story of the system: we have a plan. We know where we are going. We are managing the future. And on paper, that is true.

 

No one doubted the intention. No one questioned the commitment. The budget, the ministers, the members — all present, all engaged, all serious about what they were doing. That matters. It is the foundation on which everything else has to be built on.

 

The Friction

 

By Day Three, the questions began to land differently. Roads. Housing. Transport. Delays in development projects. Gaps in service delivery.

 

Nothing dramatic. Nothing unexpected. But something important shifted. The discussion moved from planning to delivery. It became harder to ignore a simple pattern: the plans were there. The execution was uneven.

 

By Day Four, that pattern had a name. Brunei does not have a planning problem. It has a delivery problem. That was not said as an accusation. It emerged as an observation — repeated across sectors, reflected in timelines, and felt in everyday experience.

 

And it was at this point that a reader — writing in response to the series — put something plainly that stayed with this column for the rest of the session. A nation cannot be built, they said, if its people are left to fend for themselves. The brightest young minds — the ones this country needs most — are not thinking about nation-building when they are thinking about survival. How can a generation contribute to a future they are not yet sure they belong in?

 

We are no longer at a stage where activity is impressive. Only outcomes are.

 

The Reality

By Day Five and Six, the lens widened. The discussion moved beyond internal systems into the pressures shaping them. Budget constraints. Revenue ceilings. External economic shifts. Workforce strain. Mental health signals. Barriers to doing business.

 

Inside the chamber, answers were structured and measured. Outside it, the experience was less orderly. A worker is managing long hours without proper protection. A family stretching its income across rising costs. A young adult carrying uncertainty into their twenties.

 

It raised a quiet but difficult question: are we still talking about the same reality?

 

There were signs of movement — reviews underway, reforms being discussed, and a growing openness from ministers about constraints within the system. These are not small developments. But they are still steps, not outcomes.

 

DMAO — who has written in response to this series across multiple days — named this precisely. He drew on productivity research from the Centre for Strategic and Policy Studies to make his point: productivity is not built on the presence of resources. It is built on persistence in using them. His formula was simple. Productivity equals execution multiplied by continuity. If execution starts but does not continue, productivity stagnates. If follow-up stops, outcomes disappear.

 

We have become very good at starting. Launching. Announcing. Responding. But productivity is not created at the point of launch. It is created at the point of sustained follow-through. That is the gap DMAO has been naming since Day Six — and it is the gap that ran through every day of this session.

 

The People

By Day Seven, the numbers began to take shape as people.

 

A family in Belait — three generations tied to a single industry — asking what comes next. A man whose grandfather worked for Shell. His father did too. Now he is being told, gently and without certainty, that the path may no longer be there in the same way. Not because he is unwilling or unqualified. But because the industry that gave his town its identity is contracting, and the industries meant to replace it have not yet arrived in his street.

 

Civil servants suspended for years, their families managing on half salaries while waiting for a system to reach a conclusion. Some of those cases date back to 2020. A member of the chamber named them specifically, by department and by year. The minister acknowledged the problem and promised a review of the rules that have governed suspensions since 1998. The review is welcome. But it does not give those families the years back.

 

Young adults seeking help for anxiety in a system already under strain. More than 13,000 people were in mental health treatment in a single year. A 17 per cent increase. The largest group affected: people in their early twenties. The same people the chamber has been discussing all week — the unemployed graduates, the skills-mismatch generation, the ones carrying the weight of a future that keeps feeling just out of reach.

 

The budget speaks in billions. But the people inside it are speaking in ones.

 

The budget speaks in billions. But the people inside it are speaking in ones.

 

The Gap

 

Day Eight closed the session with its clearest image. A mother at a photocopier.

 

The Ministry of Education has over BND576 million allocated for 2026/2027. There are policies, programmes, and frameworks. And yet a child with a visual impairment is still waiting for materials he can use — while his mother produces them herself, page by page, year after year, at her own cost. A member of the chamber knows this family personally. She saluted the mother. Then she asked the question that mattered most: what about the parents who cannot afford even a photocopier?

 

DMAO took that image and pushed it further than anyone else in this conversation. He asked whether the real problem is not just a delivery gap, but a design gap. Citizens, he argued, are still being treated as passive recipients — people the system delivers to, rather than people the system works with. But in reality, families like that mother's are already solving problems. They are already filling gaps. They are already contributing — quietly, without recognition, without support, and without any formal place in the national delivery chain.

 

He introduced the idea of a WAQAF model — not as a religious obligation alone, but as a civic culture. A shared photocopier in a mosque or community centre, maintained by volunteers, available to any family that needs it, sustained by collective ownership rather than individual burden. One machine. One community. One less mother standing alone.

 

It is a practical idea. But it points to something bigger. Until the system recognises, enables, and scales the contribution that citizens are already making — quietly, at home, at their own expense — the gap will keep reappearing in different forms.

 

This gap appeared in other forms across the session, too. A minister is calling an event organiser, when what is needed is a policy framework for how foreign vendors participate in Brunei's festive economy. A welfare system using 2015 data, while families live in 2026 prices. A stock exchange is planned for 2027, while savers are looking for options today. The system knows the problems. It can name them clearly. It is still working to close the distance between naming and fixing.

 

 

"This is a dangerously accurate piece and that's exactly why it matters. We are no longer at a stage where activity is impressive. Only outcomes are." — A reader, responding to this series

 

An international reader — writing from outside Brunei — added a different dimension. He suggested that outcomes need to be valued and placed on the national balance sheet, not just counted as activities. If an investment is made, someone should be asking: What did it generate? Not just in money, but in human capability, adaptability, and resilience. What increased? What improved? Was the outcome recognised, measured, and replicated? Or did it disappear into a report that no one returned to?

The Question

 

Across eight days, the Legislative Council did what it is meant to do. It debated. It questioned. It answered. It recorded. Some answers were detailed. Some were candid. Some were genuinely encouraging.

 

But as the session drew to a close, one question — raised by DMAO in response to this series and repeated in different forms across each of his papers — remained unanswered.

 

After the answer is given, who is still responsible?

 

Who returns in six months to see if the textbook arrived? Who checks if the welfare rate changed when the KMKA was updated? Who follows up when the conversation ends, and the chamber goes quiet? Who owns the outcome — not just the announcement?

 

DMAO framed this as a national vital signs question. He listed four diagnostics. Continuity — does the system keep its pulse across leadership changes, or does it restart every time? Follow-through — is the pressure maintained until results actually arrive, or does it ease the moment the answer is given? Accountability — is there real ownership, or does everyone being responsible mean no one is? Execution speed — does the system respond at the pace people need, or at the pace that is comfortable?

 

These are not rhetorical questions. They are the difference between a session that matters and a session that was held.

 

His diagnosis was clear. Brunei does not have a budget problem. It does not have a policy problem. What it has is a continuity and execution discipline problem. And beneath that — a behavioural problem. Because continuity is not a structural issue. It is a discipline. And follow-through is not a procedural issue. It is a matter of character.

 

Brunei does not have a budget problem. It does not have a policy problem. What it has is a continuity and execution discipline problem.

 

The Measure

 

The moon was sighted on Thursday evening. Ramadan ended. The country moved into Hari Raya. The Yang Di-Pertua closed the chamber warmly, wished everyone well, and noted that when they reconvene on 25 March, the mood may be different.

 

He was right. The mood will be different. The questions will not.

 

A young man in Belait is still looking at his future and quietly recalculating it. His grandfather's industry is contracting. The new industries are still arriving. He is in between — not abandoned, but not yet held.

 

A civil servant is still waiting for the review that will update the rules that put him on half pay. The review was promised. It has not yet happened.

 

A young adult is still sitting in a mental health waiting room, managing what the economy has not resolved. The numbers are rising. The capacity is strained. The plan exists. The gap remains.

 

And a mother is still at the photocopier — making sure her child does not fall behind, in a system that already knows he needs help and has not yet made it easy to give.

 

They were all in the room across these eight days. Not as statistics. As people. Visible, specific, and impossible to reduce to a line item.

 

This series — KopiTalk LegCo Tracker — has tried to keep them visible. To report not just what was said, but what it meant for the people it was said about. DMAO, writing day after day alongside this series, kept asking the harder version of the same question: not whether the system cares, but whether it is designed to follow through.

 

Readers responded. Some from inside Brunei — business owners, young professionals, community members who recognised their own situations in what was being reported. Some from outside — people watching a small, oil-dependent nation navigate a genuinely difficult transition with seriousness and care, but sometimes without the institutional discipline to sustain what it starts.

 

The session will resume. The committee stage will continue. More ministries will be debated. More questions will be asked. More answers will be given.

 

The real measure of what those eight days were worth is not in the Hansard. It is in what happens between now and the next time the same questions are raised.

 

Will the textbook arrive? Will the welfare rate move? Will the young man in Belait find a path that does not require leaving everything his family built? Will the mother be able to put down the photocopier?

 

Those are not grand questions of national policy. They are the small questions that test whether the large answers meant anything.

 

 

 

Because in the end, a system is not measured by what it plans — but by what it no longer asks its people to fix on their own.

 

 

 

Editor's Note

This closing report concludes the KopiTalk LegCo Tracker series covering the first eight days of the 22nd Legislative Council session, 11–19 March 2026. The session was adjourned before Hari Raya Aidilfitri and is scheduled to resume on Wednesday, 25 March 2026. KopiTalk with MHO thanks all readers who wrote in, responded, and engaged with the series — particularly DMAO, whose sustained civic commentary across every day of this session added depth, rigour, and an accountability framework that no daily report can match alone. The series continues when the session resumes.

 

 

 

KopiTalk with MHO  |  Public interest. Plain language. Honest conversation.

What was said, what mattered, and what the public is still waiting for.