The Numbers Don’t Lie: Brunei’s Economy Is Entering a New Era

The data shows an economy at ease on the surface, but under pressure where it matters most.

By Malai Hassan Othman | KopiTalk with MHO 

The latest Economic Census of Enterprises (ECE) 2024, released by the Department of Economic Planning and Statistics (DEPS), offers a revealing snapshot of Brunei’s private sector. 

Beneath the calm surface of our economy, the data exposes a nation still anchored in small-scale enterprises and foreign labour, yet steadily moving - almost quietly - into new sectors that may define Brunei’s post-hydrocarbon future. 

This year’s findings also align closely with the Brunei Economic Outlook 2025 (BEO2025), reinforcing concerns about structural vulnerabilities, the urgency of diversification, and the narrowing window of opportunity for transition.

Brunei today has 6,952 enterprises, with more than nine in ten classified as micro, small, or medium-sized. Small businesses remain the backbone of the private economy, while large companies account for only 6.7 per cent. 

This structure reflects both the strengths and limitations of the country’s enterprise landscape: a vibrant ecosystem of small operators, but too fragmented to generate the scale needed for high-value growth.

The services sector continues to dominate, accounting for 77.6 per cent of all enterprises. The industrial sector comprises 19.8 per cent, while the primary sector - agriculture, forestry, and fisheries - remains small at 2.5 per cent. 

For a nation that imports over 90 per cent of its food, the limited footprint of agriculture presents a strategic vulnerability. 

According to the BEO2025, while non-oil and gas sectors have grown, they remain fragmented - most targeted diversification subsectors collectively contribute less than 10 per cent to GDP, underscoring the challenges of building a resilient non-oil base.

Employment data adds another layer to the story. The private sector employs 131,065 people, but nearly 45 per cent are foreign workers. 

In Brunei’s shops, cafés, construction sites, and service counters, nearly half of the workforce consists of non-locals. 

Locals make up just 55 per cent of the workforce, a ratio that heightens public anxiety around unemployment, underemployment, and the reality of a labour market that has yet to achieve balance.

Men continue to dominate the workforce at 67.7 per cent, reflecting longstanding patterns in construction, logistics, and other labour-intensive fields. 

However, the BEO2025 highlights that as digitalisation and automation reshape industries, Brunei faces a widening skills gap - an economy moving forward while parts of its workforce remain stagnant.

The most telling signs lie not in familiar patterns but in the shifts beneath them.

Employment in mining and quarrying, the core of the oil and gas sector, declined by 10.8 per cent, while revenue plunged by 26.5 per cent. 

Manufacturing - once seen as a potential pillar - also suffered a sharp revenue drop of 24.2 per cent. 

These are not minor fluctuations; they indicate a structural trend of cooling momentum in the very sectors that have sustained the nation for half a century.

What makes this trend more concerning is the pressure emerging from outside our borders. 

A recent analysis by JPMorgan, published by OilPrice.com, warns that global crude prices could plunge into the US$30-per-barrel range by 2027, driven by oversupply and shifting global demand patterns. 

The BEO2025 reinforces this outlook: global oil demand is weakening due to the rapid rise of electric vehicles, renewable energy expansion, and increasing U.S. oil production. The report explicitly warns that 2025 and 2026 are expected to see softer global energy prices.

If these forecasts materialise, the financial pressure on Brunei’s hydrocarbon-dependent economy could intensify dramatically. 

With more than 70 per cent of national revenue still tied to oil and gas, a collapse in global prices would tighten fiscal space, weaken export earnings, and amplify the vulnerabilities already highlighted by the ECE 2024. 

It would mean Brunei confronting both an internal decline in sectoral activity and an external collapse in market prices - a dual impact that could reshape the country’s economic trajectory for years to come.

A prolonged downturn in global oil prices would not only strain government revenue but also risk slowing development projects, delaying public spending, and heightening the socio-economic pressures felt by households facing stagnant wages and rising costs. 

The BEO2025 notes that while short-term relief from lower prices may help cushion adjustments, it simultaneously signals shrinking margins for sustainable transition. 

For Brunei, the JPMorgan warning is global in context but deeply personal in impact. It indicates that the window for a smooth transition away from hydrocarbons is narrowing.

Yet even as traditional pillars weaken, other sectors are quietly gaining momentum.

Employment in construction rose by 21.4 per cent, driven by ongoing public and private projects. 

Human health and social activities grew by 21.6 per cent, reflecting rising demand for healthcare services as the population ages. 

Real estate employment surged by 60.5 per cent, likely tied to development cycles rather than broad structural expansion.

The strongest surge came from professional, technical, administrative, and support services, which recorded a 23.7 per cent growth in employment and a 35.5 per cent increase in revenue. 

These numbers suggest that Brunei is slowly cultivating a more knowledge-based economy, with rising demand for consultants, specialists, and technical service providers across sectors. 

The BEO2025 reinforces this trajectory, highlighting the potential for data centres and digital industries due to Brunei’s low disaster risk and reliable power infrastructure.

Wholesale and retail trade continued to climb, with revenue rising by 22 per cent and employment increasing by 9.5 per cent, bringing total employment in this sector to nearly 30,000 workers. 

This refinement is based directly on the ECE 2024 figures (27,211 → 29,792), strengthening the authenticity of the narrative without altering its storyline.

Agriculture, forestry, and fisheries saw encouraging gains—38.4 per cent rise in employment and a 28.6 per cent increase in revenue—but from a small base, meaning it will take sustained effort before the sector can meaningfully reduce import dependency.

Accommodation and food services also recovered, benefiting from renewed activity in the domestic hospitality ecosystem. 

Similarly, finance, insurance, utilities, and other service segments posted healthy revenue growth, signalling broader economic adjustments and a degree of diversification - though still modest in scale.

One additional refinement for accuracy concerns the education sector. While revenue saw a small increase of 0.9 per cent, employment in education actually declined by 2.4 per cent. 

This reflects adjustments in staffing levels rather than expansion and reinforces the need for targeted workforce strategies in key human capital sectors.

The BEO2025 further warns that Brunei’s long-term baseline growth remains around 1.4 per cent - far below what is needed to achieve economic transformation under Wawasan 2035. 

Growth in 2024, while strong at 4.2 per cent, is likely to normalise back to 1.5–2.0 per cent in 2025, underscoring the temporary nature of the rebound and the urgency of sustained structural reform.

At the same time, Brunei’s commitment to Net Zero by 2050 and its pledge to reduce emissions by 20 per cent by 2030 add another dimension to the transformation challenge. 

The shift toward cleaner energy and global climate obligations will reshape the economy, whether Brunei is prepared or not. 

The BEO2025 emphasises that renewable energy targets and sustainability commitments will increasingly drive investment decisions.

Nonetheless, the report outlines a possible upside scenario. If the private sector accelerates investment and key projects reach completion, Brunei could see growth rebound to around 3 per cent by 2026 - an achievable but demanding trajectory that requires clarity, coordination, and consistent policy execution.

Taken together, the census and the economic outlook reveal an economy at a crossroads. 

Brunei remains a nation of small businesses, reliant on foreign labour and navigating a gradual decline in oil and gas. 

But beneath these realities lie emerging sectors that are beginning to carry more weight, offering pathways into a more diversified future - if they are supported with urgency and clarity.

The message behind the data is quiet but unmistakable:
Brunei’s next decade will determine whether the nation accelerates toward the vision of Wawasan 2035 or drifts into an era of stagnation shaped by shrinking hydrocarbons and slow structural reform.

The choices made today - on skills, labour policy, SME development, investment attraction, and economic governance - will define not only the country’s economic resilience but also the opportunities available to its youth.

The window is still open,
But it is narrowing.

Brunei has the stability, resources, and social cohesion to transform its economy. What it needs now is momentum - real, urgent, sustained momentum - to ensure that the story of the next ten years is one of renewal, not regret.

If there is a moment to act, it is now.

— KopiTalk with MHO

 

Refleksi Ringkas: Bila Kita Tahu Tapi Belum Sedia

Baru-baru ini saya berkesempatan menghadiri satu kuliah subuh. Ustaz yang mengajar menyentuh Surah Al-Bayyinah. Saya bukan ahli tafsir atau guru agama, tetapi ada beberapa perkara yang saya rasa elok saya tulis untuk mengingatkan diri sendiri. Kalau ada manfaat untuk orang lain, itu semata-mata ihsan Allah.

Ayat pertama surah ini menyebut bahawa manusia jarang berubah sehingga datang keterangan yang jelas. Ketika ustaz menjelaskan maksud ayat itu, saya terfikir betapa benarnya hakikat ini. 

Banyak perkara dalam hidup yang saya tahu sepatutnya saya lakukan, tetapi saya tangguh. Kita selalu mencari alasan yang kelihatan wajar, padahal di dalam hati kita tahu itu hanyalah helah kecil untuk melambatkan perubahan. Bila datang peringatan atau nasihat yang tepat pada waktunya, barulah hati terasa disentuh.

Ustaz kemudian membaca ayat tentang lembaran wahyu yang suci dan lurus. Pada ketika itu saya terasa seolah-olah diingatkan bahawa kadang-kadang hidup menjadi berat bukan kerana cabaran besar, tetapi kerana hati yang berserabut. 

Al-Qur’an sebenarnya penenang yang paling dekat, tetapi kita jarang memberi ruang untuk ia “meluruskan” kembali apa yang simpang siur dalam diri kita.

Apabila ustaz menerangkan bagaimana manusia berpecah setelah datang kebenaran, saya berfikir panjang. Penjelasan itu terasa sangat sesuai dengan realiti manusia - kadang-kadang masalah bukan kerana kita tidak tahu, tetapi kerana hati kita sendiri belum bersedia menerima apa yang benar walaupun kita sedar ia betul. 

Saya melihat hal ini bukan pada orang lain, tetapi pada diri saya sendiri. Itulah antara bahagian kuliah yang paling melekat dalam fikiran saya.

Ustaz juga mengingatkan bahawa agama ini sebenarnya ringkas pada asasnya: ikhlas kepada Allah, kembali kepada fitrah, solat dan zakat. Saya terfikir betapa mudahnya Allah menyusun agama, tetapi betapa mudah pula kita mempersulitkannya. 

Kita memberi perhatian kepada perkara sampingan, sedangkan perkara paling asas - niat yang bersih, solat yang terjaga, dan keprihatinan kepada orang susah - itulah yang sebenarnya membentuk diri kita.

Bahagian yang paling menyentuh saya ialah waktu ustaz menyentuh tentang bagaimana Allah membezakan antara mereka yang menolak kebenaran dan mereka yang beriman serta berusaha berbuat baik. 

Ada satu perkara yang benar-benar menghiburkan hati saya: kita tidak diminta menjadi sempurna. Kita hanya diminta untuk jujur dan terus berusaha. Itu sudah memadai.

Akhir surah ini menyebut tentang Allah reda kepada hamba-Nya, dan hamba itu juga reda dengan Allah. 

Ketika ustaz membaca ayat ini, saya terasa satu ketenangan yang sukar diterangkan. 

Rupa-rupanya reda itu bukan bermaksud menyerah kalah; reda itu adalah percaya kepada Allah walaupun kita tidak nampak seluruh perjalanan di depan. Ayat itu memberi saya sedikit kekuatan dan kelegaan.

Saya tulis semua ini kerana saya takut lupa apa yang saya pelajari tadi. Ini hanyalah catatan seorang pelajar yang masih jauh daripada sempurna. Jika ada baiknya, itu daripada Allah. Jika ada kurangnya, itu kelemahan diri saya sendiri. Semoga sedikit catatan ini menjadi peringatan kepada diri saya, dan mungkin juga kepada sesiapa yang membaca. (MHO/12/2025)